The Republican nominee holds a commanding lead in the MI-02 race due to the district’s consistent R+15 partisan voting index and the strength of incumbent John Moolenaar, who secured 65 percent in the 2024 general election and faced no serious primary opposition on August 4. Forecasters across outlets have uniformly rated the seat Solid Republican or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and fundraising relative to the incumbent’s established campaign operation. With general-election ballots set for November 3, 2026, and Democrat Ben Ambrose as the primary-nominated challenger, traders see few near-term catalysts capable of narrowing the margin. The only realistic paths to a closer contest would involve a major scandal or health event affecting Moolenaar, an unusually strong national Democratic wave that overcomes the district’s structural lean, or unexpectedly high turnout among suburban or rural Democratic-leaning voters—developments that have not materialized in polling or fundraising data to date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей MI-02
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей MI-02
$53,824 Объем
$53,824 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
98%
Демократическая партия
1%
$53,824 Объем
$53,824 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
$22,737 Объем
98%
Демократическая партия
$31,087 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican nominee holds a commanding lead in the MI-02 race due to the district’s consistent R+15 partisan voting index and the strength of incumbent John Moolenaar, who secured 65 percent in the 2024 general election and faced no serious primary opposition on August 4. Forecasters across outlets have uniformly rated the seat Solid Republican or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and fundraising relative to the incumbent’s established campaign operation. With general-election ballots set for November 3, 2026, and Democrat Ben Ambrose as the primary-nominated challenger, traders see few near-term catalysts capable of narrowing the margin. The only realistic paths to a closer contest would involve a major scandal or health event affecting Moolenaar, an unusually strong national Democratic wave that overcomes the district’s structural lean, or unexpectedly high turnout among suburban or rural Democratic-leaning voters—developments that have not materialized in polling or fundraising data to date.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Объем
$53,824Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican nominee holds a commanding lead in the MI-02 race due to the district’s consistent R+15 partisan voting index and the strength of incumbent John Moolenaar, who secured 65 percent in the 2024 general election and faced no serious primary opposition on August 4. Forecasters across outlets have uniformly rated the seat Solid Republican or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and fundraising relative to the incumbent’s established campaign operation. With general-election ballots set for November 3, 2026, and Democrat Ben Ambrose as the primary-nominated challenger, traders see few near-term catalysts capable of narrowing the margin. The only realistic paths to a closer contest would involve a major scandal or health event affecting Moolenaar, an unusually strong national Democratic wave that overcomes the district’s structural lean, or unexpectedly high turnout among suburban or rural Democratic-leaning voters—developments that have not materialized in polling or fundraising data to date.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$53,824Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican nominee holds a commanding lead in the MI-02 race due to the district’s consistent R+15 partisan voting index and the strength of incumbent John Moolenaar, who secured 65 percent in the 2024 general election and faced no serious primary opposition on August 4. Forecasters across outlets have uniformly rated the seat Solid Republican or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and fundraising relative to the incumbent’s established campaign operation. With general-election ballots set for November 3, 2026, and Democrat Ben Ambrose as the primary-nominated challenger, traders see few near-term catalysts capable of narrowing the margin. The only realistic paths to a closer contest would involve a major scandal or health event affecting Moolenaar, an unusually strong national Democratic wave that overcomes the district’s structural lean, or unexpectedly high turnout among suburban or rural Democratic-leaning voters—developments that have not materialized in polling or fundraising data to date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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