Peggy Flanagan secured the open Minnesota U.S. Senate seat for Democrats with a margin of approximately 10.1 points after defeating Republican Michele Tafoya 53.7% to 43.6% in the November 3 election. With 99% of votes counted, the results align closely with the leading 10-15% outcome priced at 76.5% on Polymarket. The race followed Tina Smith’s retirement and Flanagan’s primary win over Rep. Angie Craig. Traders’ consensus on the 10-15% bracket reflects the final statewide tally and limited remaining ballots, though minor adjustments could occur during official certification. Historical patterns in Minnesota show Democratic performance varying with national conditions and turnout in key urban and suburban counties.