Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed Iran's Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 after his father Ali Khamenei's death in U.S.-Israeli strikes, has issued statements and decrees solely in written form without any confirmed public appearances or visual media since the transition. Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, and family members have issued repeated claims of his recovery from injuries and meetings in private, yet these lack photographic or video evidence amid the ongoing conflict. Traders price low probabilities for near-term appearances due to the regime's security concerns, potential health constraints, and preference for controlled messaging during wartime, with resolution hinging on verifiable public sightings or footage by specific deadlines. Upcoming diplomatic or state events could shift odds if they force a visible appearance.