**Incumbent Republican Trent Kelly faces Democrat Cliff Johnson in the November 3, 2026 general election for Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District.** The seat covers northeastern Mississippi, including areas around Tupelo, Oxford, and Southaven. Kelly, first elected in a 2015 special election, won reelection in 2024 with nearly 70 percent of the vote and faces no primary opposition. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, consistent with the district’s strong partisan lean. Kelly’s established incumbency, substantial fundraising, and the absence of competitive Democratic performance in the district for over a decade underpin the 93.5 percent Republican probability reflected in trader consensus. Johnson secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary but confronts structural barriers typical of this safely held seat. Realistic shifts remain limited to low-probability events such as a major undisclosed scandal, serious health development affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national political realignment capable of overcoming the district’s established voting patterns.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоMS-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
MS-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$109,873 Объем
$109,873 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
94%
Демократическая партия
3%
$109,873 Объем
$109,873 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
$78,142 Объем
94%
Демократическая партия
$31,731 Объем
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Republican Trent Kelly faces Democrat Cliff Johnson in the November 3, 2026 general election for Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District.** The seat covers northeastern Mississippi, including areas around Tupelo, Oxford, and Southaven. Kelly, first elected in a 2015 special election, won reelection in 2024 with nearly 70 percent of the vote and faces no primary opposition. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, consistent with the district’s strong partisan lean.
Kelly’s established incumbency, substantial fundraising, and the absence of competitive Democratic performance in the district for over a decade underpin the 93.5 percent Republican probability reflected in trader consensus. Johnson secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary but confronts structural barriers typical of this safely held seat.
Realistic shifts remain limited to low-probability events such as a major undisclosed scandal, serious health development affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national political realignment capable of overcoming the district’s established voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Объем
$109,873Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Republican Trent Kelly faces Democrat Cliff Johnson in the November 3, 2026 general election for Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District.** The seat covers northeastern Mississippi, including areas around Tupelo, Oxford, and Southaven. Kelly, first elected in a 2015 special election, won reelection in 2024 with nearly 70 percent of the vote and faces no primary opposition. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, consistent with the district’s strong partisan lean.
Kelly’s established incumbency, substantial fundraising, and the absence of competitive Democratic performance in the district for over a decade underpin the 93.5 percent Republican probability reflected in trader consensus. Johnson secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary but confronts structural barriers typical of this safely held seat.
Realistic shifts remain limited to low-probability events such as a major undisclosed scandal, serious health development affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national political realignment capable of overcoming the district’s established voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$109,873Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Incumbent Republican Trent Kelly faces Democrat Cliff Johnson in the November 3, 2026 general election for Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District.** The seat covers northeastern Mississippi, including areas around Tupelo, Oxford, and Southaven. Kelly, first elected in a 2015 special election, won reelection in 2024 with nearly 70 percent of the vote and faces no primary opposition. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, consistent with the district’s strong partisan lean. Kelly’s established incumbency, substantial fundraising, and the absence of competitive Democratic performance in the district for over a decade underpin the 93.5 percent Republican probability reflected in trader consensus. Johnson secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary but confronts structural barriers typical of this safely held seat. Realistic shifts remain limited to low-probability events such as a major undisclosed scandal, serious health development affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national political realignment capable of overcoming the district’s established voting patterns.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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