The open seat in Montana’s 1st District, which carries a Republican lean, has kept Aaron Flint narrowly ahead in trader consensus at 55 percent amid a toss-up race. Recent high-profile Republican events, including a Trump rally in Kalispell and visits from House Speaker Mike Johnson, have reinforced Flint’s positioning as the party’s nominee against Democrat Sam Forstag, a first-time candidate and former smokejumper. October debates allowed Flint to highlight Forstag’s prior lobbying work on tax measures, while Forstag has maintained competitiveness through superior fundraising totals exceeding $4 million and stronger appeal among independents. Late-October polling averages remain within a point or two, with the November 3 election still featuring enough undecided voters and turnout variables to sustain the narrow market spread.