Naim Qassem assumed the role of Hezbollah secretary-general in late October 2024 following the deaths of Hassan Nasrallah and presumed successor Hashem Safieddine. Trader positioning reflects ongoing risks from Israeli operations, internal Hezbollah restructuring of its political and military councils, and Lebanese government efforts to enforce disarmament and advance bilateral talks with Israel. Recent catalysts include Qassem’s public rejections of U.S.-mediated frameworks that tie Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon to weapons restrictions, continued cross-border incidents after the 2024 ceasefire, and reported factional tensions between pragmatic and hardline elements within the group. Scheduled diplomatic meetings and any escalation in enforcement actions by Lebanese authorities or external actors remain key variables that could accelerate or delay leadership transitions.