Hsu Shu-hua, the Kuomintang incumbent magistrate of Nantou County, holds a commanding lead in the November 28, 2026, local election market, reflecting her established position in a county the party has controlled since 2005. She secured the seat in 2022 with roughly 60 percent of the vote and has since focused on infrastructure, transportation hubs, and local projects that sustain grassroots support. The DPP challenger, Wen Shih-cheng, faces structural headwinds in this traditionally pan-blue area, with limited recent polling momentum or high-profile endorsements altering the race. Trader consensus prices the outcome heavily toward the incumbent because no major scandals, policy reversals, or national events have disrupted her standing in the past month. Late developments such as an unforeseen controversy or sharp turnout shifts could still narrow the gap before election day.