Benjamin Netanyahu faces an active ICC arrest warrant issued in November 2024 over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza, though Israel rejects the court's jurisdiction and no Rome Statute state has enforced it. Trader-implied probabilities for arrest by September 30 or December 31, 2026, stay low at roughly 2% and 6%, driven by U.S. non-membership in the ICC, sanctions on court personnel, and explicit White House assurances under President Trump that Netanyahu will not face detention during his planned early-September UN General Assembly visit to New York. Domestic Israeli corruption proceedings continue without custody orders, while Turkey's August 2026 domestic indictment and Interpol Red Notice request add a separate track but face comparable enforcement barriers. Netanyahu has confirmed travel with security measures, and upcoming events such as the UN session or ongoing appeals offer limited near-term resolution triggers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$24,719 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
30 сентября
1%
31 декабря
6%
$24,719 Объем
30 сентября
$18,465 Объем
1%
31 декабря
$6,254 Объем
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Benjamin Netanyahu faces an active ICC arrest warrant issued in November 2024 over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza, though Israel rejects the court's jurisdiction and no Rome Statute state has enforced it. Trader-implied probabilities for arrest by September 30 or December 31, 2026, stay low at roughly 2% and 6%, driven by U.S. non-membership in the ICC, sanctions on court personnel, and explicit White House assurances under President Trump that Netanyahu will not face detention during his planned early-September UN General Assembly visit to New York. Domestic Israeli corruption proceedings continue without custody orders, while Turkey's August 2026 domestic indictment and Interpol Red Notice request add a separate track but face comparable enforcement barriers. Netanyahu has confirmed travel with security measures, and upcoming events such as the UN session or ongoing appeals offer limited near-term resolution triggers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ET
Объем
$24,719Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Benjamin Netanyahu faces an active ICC arrest warrant issued in November 2024 over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza, though Israel rejects the court's jurisdiction and no Rome Statute state has enforced it. Trader-implied probabilities for arrest by September 30 or December 31, 2026, stay low at roughly 2% and 6%, driven by U.S. non-membership in the ICC, sanctions on court personnel, and explicit White House assurances under President Trump that Netanyahu will not face detention during his planned early-September UN General Assembly visit to New York. Domestic Israeli corruption proceedings continue without custody orders, while Turkey's August 2026 domestic indictment and Interpol Red Notice request add a separate track but face comparable enforcement barriers. Netanyahu has confirmed travel with security measures, and upcoming events such as the UN session or ongoing appeals offer limited near-term resolution triggers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$24,719Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Benjamin Netanyahu faces an active ICC arrest warrant issued in November 2024 over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza, though Israel rejects the court's jurisdiction and no Rome Statute state has enforced it. Trader-implied probabilities for arrest by September 30 or December 31, 2026, stay low at roughly 2% and 6%, driven by U.S. non-membership in the ICC, sanctions on court personnel, and explicit White House assurances under President Trump that Netanyahu will not face detention during his planned early-September UN General Assembly visit to New York. Domestic Israeli corruption proceedings continue without custody orders, while Turkey's August 2026 domestic indictment and Interpol Red Notice request add a separate track but face comparable enforcement barriers. Netanyahu has confirmed travel with security measures, and upcoming events such as the UN session or ongoing appeals offer limited near-term resolution triggers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы