**The ICC arrest warrant issued in November 2024 for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza remains the central factor shaping expectations around any potential detention of Benjamin Netanyahu.** Issued by Pre-Trial Chamber I and upheld on appeal, the warrant has not been executed despite Netanyahu’s travel through ICC member-state airspace en route to the September 2026 UN General Assembly in New York. The United States, a non-member, has imposed sanctions on the court and its personnel, while several European overflight countries declined to act on the warrant for a state aircraft. Domestically, Netanyahu’s long-running corruption trial in Jerusalem continues without resolution or custody, with judges recently signaling evidentiary weaknesses on the bribery count. Upcoming Knesset elections on October 27, 2026, add political context, as the sitting prime minister campaigns amid these legal pressures. Trader assessments reflect the practical barriers to enforcement of the ICC warrant absent cooperation from key states.