Microsoft announced MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model, on June 2, 2026, during Build as part of a seven-model MAI family rollout. The 35-billion-active-parameter MoE model features a large context window and targets complex multi-step reasoning, long-context tasks, and coding, with Microsoft claiming parity to Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 on SWE-Bench Pro and preference over Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations. Trained from scratch on licensed data without distillation, it entered private preview on Microsoft Foundry and signals reduced reliance on external providers like OpenAI. Traders are monitoring integration into Copilot, GitHub, and Azure, alongside any follow-up public releases or benchmark updates that could shift competitive positioning in the reasoning-model segment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNew MAI thinking model released by...?
New MAI thinking model released by...?
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
September 30
37%
December 31
49%
$0.00 Объем
September 30
$0 Объем
37%
December 31
$0 Объем
49%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft announced MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model, on June 2, 2026, during Build as part of a seven-model MAI family rollout. The 35-billion-active-parameter MoE model features a large context window and targets complex multi-step reasoning, long-context tasks, and coding, with Microsoft claiming parity to Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 on SWE-Bench Pro and preference over Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations. Trained from scratch on licensed data without distillation, it entered private preview on Microsoft Foundry and signals reduced reliance on external providers like OpenAI. Traders are monitoring integration into Copilot, GitHub, and Azure, alongside any follow-up public releases or benchmark updates that could shift competitive positioning in the reasoning-model segment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft announced MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model, on June 2, 2026, during Build as part of a seven-model MAI family rollout. The 35-billion-active-parameter MoE model features a large context window and targets complex multi-step reasoning, long-context tasks, and coding, with Microsoft claiming parity to Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 on SWE-Bench Pro and preference over Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations. Trained from scratch on licensed data without distillation, it entered private preview on Microsoft Foundry and signals reduced reliance on external providers like OpenAI. Traders are monitoring integration into Copilot, GitHub, and Azure, alongside any follow-up public releases or benchmark updates that could shift competitive positioning in the reasoning-model segment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Microsoft announced MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model, on June 2, 2026, during Build as part of a seven-model MAI family rollout. The 35-billion-active-parameter MoE model features a large context window and targets complex multi-step reasoning, long-context tasks, and coding, with Microsoft claiming parity to Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 on SWE-Bench Pro and preference over Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations. Trained from scratch on licensed data without distillation, it entered private preview on Microsoft Foundry and signals reduced reliance on external providers like OpenAI. Traders are monitoring integration into Copilot, GitHub, and Azure, alongside any follow-up public releases or benchmark updates that could shift competitive positioning in the reasoning-model segment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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