Trader consensus assigns an 83% implied probability to no new pandemic before 2028, reflecting strengthened global surveillance and the absence of novel pathogens exhibiting sustained human-to-human transmission with pandemic potential. Official monitoring by WHO and CDC shows contained outbreaks of known threats such as Ebola, Marburg, and clade I mpox, alongside routine seasonal activity of influenza, RSV, and COVID-19 variants without evidence of rapid escalation. Post-2020 improvements in rapid diagnostics, vaccine platforms, and outbreak response have shortened containment timelines, while annual baseline risk estimates for a COVID-scale event remain around 2–3%. Key upcoming factors include continued genomic surveillance data releases and any shifts in zoonotic spillover patterns.