Recent polling aggregates place National and Labour in a tight contest near 30% each for the November 7, 2026 election under New Zealand’s MMP rules, positioning the Green Party and New Zealand First as the primary contenders for third place in party vote share. Greens have shown modest leads in several mid-August surveys, often around 10–12%, compared with New Zealand First at 8–11% and ACT near 7–9%, reflecting stable but competitive minor-party dynamics. Leadership tensions within National and the rise of the Opportunity Party have contributed to volatility in smaller-party support without shifting the overall hierarchy. Trader consensus on these probabilities tracks these vote-intention trends and historical patterns for third-place finishes among established minor parties.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNew Zealand Election: 3rd Place
New Zealand Election: 3rd Place
Green Party 54%
New Zealand First Party 40%
ACT New Zealand 4.5%
National Party 1.7%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
7 нояб. 2026 г.
Green Party
54%
New Zealand First Party
40%
ACT New Zealand
4%
National Party
2%
Te Pāti Māori
<1%
Labour Party
<1%
Green Party 54%
New Zealand First Party 40%
ACT New Zealand 4.5%
National Party 1.7%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
7 нояб. 2026 г.
Green Party
$2,659 Объем
54%
New Zealand First Party
$2,958 Объем
40%
ACT New Zealand
$641 Объем
4%
National Party
$355 Объем
2%
Te Pāti Māori
$714 Объем
<1%
Labour Party
$1,005 Объем
<1%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling aggregates place National and Labour in a tight contest near 30% each for the November 7, 2026 election under New Zealand’s MMP rules, positioning the Green Party and New Zealand First as the primary contenders for third place in party vote share. Greens have shown modest leads in several mid-August surveys, often around 10–12%, compared with New Zealand First at 8–11% and ACT near 7–9%, reflecting stable but competitive minor-party dynamics. Leadership tensions within National and the rise of the Opportunity Party have contributed to volatility in smaller-party support without shifting the overall hierarchy. Trader consensus on these probabilities tracks these vote-intention trends and historical patterns for third-place finishes among established minor parties.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Открытие рынка: Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Объем
$8,332Дата окончания
7 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling aggregates place National and Labour in a tight contest near 30% each for the November 7, 2026 election under New Zealand’s MMP rules, positioning the Green Party and New Zealand First as the primary contenders for third place in party vote share. Greens have shown modest leads in several mid-August surveys, often around 10–12%, compared with New Zealand First at 8–11% and ACT near 7–9%, reflecting stable but competitive minor-party dynamics. Leadership tensions within National and the rise of the Opportunity Party have contributed to volatility in smaller-party support without shifting the overall hierarchy. Trader consensus on these probabilities tracks these vote-intention trends and historical patterns for third-place finishes among established minor parties.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Объем
$8,332Дата окончания
7 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling aggregates place National and Labour in a tight contest near 30% each for the November 7, 2026 election under New Zealand’s MMP rules, positioning the Green Party and New Zealand First as the primary contenders for third place in party vote share. Greens have shown modest leads in several mid-August surveys, often around 10–12%, compared with New Zealand First at 8–11% and ACT near 7–9%, reflecting stable but competitive minor-party dynamics. Leadership tensions within National and the rise of the Opportunity Party have contributed to volatility in smaller-party support without shifting the overall hierarchy. Trader consensus on these probabilities tracks these vote-intention trends and historical patterns for third-place finishes among established minor parties.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
53%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
55%
Will the National Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
40%
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