Recent polling has shown Labour overtaking the incumbent National Party, with the left-leaning bloc now holding a narrow lead in voter intentions ahead of the 2026 general election. National’s support has slipped below 32 percent in multiple surveys released in April and May, reflecting pressure on Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and the governing coalition amid ongoing cost-of-living concerns and economic conditions. This shift has lifted Labour’s implied probability on prediction markets to 56.5 percent while capping National at 38 percent. Smaller parties including New Zealand First, ACT, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori remain marginal in the winner market, consistent with their limited standalone polling numbers and the structural requirements for forming a majority under New Zealand’s mixed-member proportional system.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNew Zealand legislative election winner?
New Zealand legislative election winner?
Labour Party 56%
National Party 37%
New Zealand First Party <1%
Te Pāti Māori <1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
7 нояб. 2026 г.
National Party
37%
Labour Party
56%
Green Party
<1%
ACT New Zealand
<1%
New Zealand First Party
1%
Te Pāti Māori
1%
Labour Party 56%
National Party 37%
New Zealand First Party <1%
Te Pāti Māori <1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
7 нояб. 2026 г.
National Party
$1,051 Объем
37%
Labour Party
$1,106 Объем
56%
Green Party
$329 Объем
<1%
ACT New Zealand
$339 Объем
<1%
New Zealand First Party
$319 Объем
1%
Te Pāti Māori
$314 Объем
1%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling has shown Labour overtaking the incumbent National Party, with the left-leaning bloc now holding a narrow lead in voter intentions ahead of the 2026 general election. National’s support has slipped below 32 percent in multiple surveys released in April and May, reflecting pressure on Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and the governing coalition amid ongoing cost-of-living concerns and economic conditions. This shift has lifted Labour’s implied probability on prediction markets to 56.5 percent while capping National at 38 percent. Smaller parties including New Zealand First, ACT, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori remain marginal in the winner market, consistent with their limited standalone polling numbers and the structural requirements for forming a majority under New Zealand’s mixed-member proportional system.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Открытие рынка: Apr 29, 2026, 7:35 PM ET
Объем
$3,457Дата окончания
7 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 29, 2026, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling has shown Labour overtaking the incumbent National Party, with the left-leaning bloc now holding a narrow lead in voter intentions ahead of the 2026 general election. National’s support has slipped below 32 percent in multiple surveys released in April and May, reflecting pressure on Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and the governing coalition amid ongoing cost-of-living concerns and economic conditions. This shift has lifted Labour’s implied probability on prediction markets to 56.5 percent while capping National at 38 percent. Smaller parties including New Zealand First, ACT, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori remain marginal in the winner market, consistent with their limited standalone polling numbers and the structural requirements for forming a majority under New Zealand’s mixed-member proportional system.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Объем
$3,457Дата окончания
7 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 29, 2026, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling has shown Labour overtaking the incumbent National Party, with the left-leaning bloc now holding a narrow lead in voter intentions ahead of the 2026 general election. National’s support has slipped below 32 percent in multiple surveys released in April and May, reflecting pressure on Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and the governing coalition amid ongoing cost-of-living concerns and economic conditions. This shift has lifted Labour’s implied probability on prediction markets to 56.5 percent while capping National at 38 percent. Smaller parties including New Zealand First, ACT, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori remain marginal in the winner market, consistent with their limited standalone polling numbers and the structural requirements for forming a majority under New Zealand’s mixed-member proportional system.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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