Ongoing deadlock in the Peace Implementation Council over appointing a permanent successor to Christian Schmidt, who stepped down effective July 1, 2026, has left Louis J. Crishock serving as Acting High Representative with full Bonn powers. US-Europe divisions over preferred candidates, including Antonio Zanardi Landi and René Troccaz, have prevented consensus despite repeated deadlines, including the July 14 target. Traders assign the highest implied probability to no new High Representative being installed in 2026, reflecting stalled negotiations, US signals of potential reconsideration of its role, and limited movement on other named diplomats. This environment keeps specific individual outcomes at lower levels while underscoring procedural barriers tied to PIC consensus requirements under the Dayton framework.