Post-election results left Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud-led bloc with 53 Knesset seats and Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar-led opposition with 48, short of the 61-seat majority needed for a stable coalition, while Arab parties secured a record 19 seats. President Herzog assigned Eisenkot the mandate on November 8, yet unity talks collapsed after Netanyahu’s divisive speech and the opposition bloc secured early parliamentary procedural wins. Traders price “no government formed” and “other” outcomes highest because ideological gaps, Arab-party inclusion debates, and caretaker-government rules keep multiple narrow or minority paths open. Upcoming committee votes, potential minority-government proposals, and any extension of Eisenkot’s 28-day window could shift probabilities before a new election becomes likely.