Aleksandar Vučić’s formal nomination by the Serbian Progressive Party as its prime ministerial candidate on the United Serbia list for the October 25 snap parliamentary elections underpins his 52% implied probability. His planned resignation from the presidency by late September clears the constitutional path for the move, as his second term ends in 2027. Sustained student-led protests since the 2024 Novi Sad station collapse and recent polling showing the ruling list near 49% versus a consolidated Student List near 37% keep the contest tight. Outcomes hinge on whether the SNS list secures a workable majority or requires coalition talks, potential opposition gains in turnout, and post-election negotiations that could elevate lesser-priced figures such as Ilija Srdanović.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоАлександр Вучич 52.0%
Илия Срданович 36%
Стефан Кркобабич 5.8%
Владан Джокич 4.4%
$412,394 Объем
$412,394 Объем
Александр Вучич
52%
Илия Срданович
36%
Стефан Кркобабич
6%
Владан Джокич
4%
Ана Брнабич
1%
Драган Джилас
<1%
Милош Вучевич
<1%
Джуро Мацут
<1%
Ивица Дачич
<1%
Бранимир Йованович
<1%
Александр Вучич 52.0%
Илия Срданович 36%
Стефан Кркобабич 5.8%
Владан Джокич 4.4%
$412,394 Объем
$412,394 Объем
Александр Вучич
52%
Илия Срданович
36%
Стефан Кркобабич
6%
Владан Джокич
4%
Ана Брнабич
1%
Драган Джилас
<1%
Милош Вучевич
<1%
Джуро Мацут
<1%
Ивица Дачич
<1%
Бранимир Йованович
<1%
To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.
Открытие рынка: Jul 1, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Aleksandar Vučić’s formal nomination by the Serbian Progressive Party as its prime ministerial candidate on the United Serbia list for the October 25 snap parliamentary elections underpins his 52% implied probability. His planned resignation from the presidency by late September clears the constitutional path for the move, as his second term ends in 2027. Sustained student-led protests since the 2024 Novi Sad station collapse and recent polling showing the ruling list near 49% versus a consolidated Student List near 37% keep the contest tight. Outcomes hinge on whether the SNS list secures a workable majority or requires coalition talks, potential opposition gains in turnout, and post-election negotiations that could elevate lesser-priced figures such as Ilija Srdanović.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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