Gintautas Kindurys leads trader consensus at 75.5% implied probability for the Northern Nalšia district by-election winner, reflecting his first-round performance on November 8. The by-election, called after the death of the incumbent Liberal Movement MP, produced a fragmented result with no candidate reaching a majority, advancing Kindurys and Mėta Paulauskė to the November 22 runoff. Kindurys captured the largest share at roughly 21%, ahead of Paulauskė at about 17%, while remaining candidates polled in single digits. This positioning, alongside the single-member constituency rules requiring a runoff, has concentrated market pricing on the top two contenders ahead of official Central Electoral Commission confirmation.