Steady mid-May travel patterns have positioned the 17.5-18 million range as the market frontrunner at 72.5% implied probability, driven by consistent daily TSA screening volumes near 2.5 million on weekdays and typical weekend dips. Recent checkpoint data through May 10 shows reliable throughput without disruptions from weather, strikes, or economic shocks, reflecting ongoing air travel recovery and a balanced business-leisure mix. Traders note higher jet fuel costs have modestly tempered demand but not enough to drop totals below expectations, while early summer schedules sustain momentum ahead of the Memorial Day surge. The final days of the period remain key swing factors, with any late corporate travel spikes or delays potentially pushing outcomes toward the upper end of the favored band.