Democratic nominee Cait Conley holds a 66% implied probability against incumbent Republican Mike Lawler at 31.5% in the November 3, 2026 general election for New York’s 17th congressional district. Conley secured the Democratic nomination in the June 23 primary with nearly 50% of the vote in a crowded field, bringing her background as a U.S. Army veteran and national security official. Lawler, who won narrow reelections in 2022 and 2024 in this Hudson Valley swing district that Kamala Harris carried by a slim margin, faces a competitive rematch rated as a toss-up by forecasters. Recent polling shows mixed head-to-head results, while fundraising data indicates Lawler maintains a significant cash advantage. Trader consensus reflects the district’s narrow partisan balance and the Democratic challenger’s electability focus amid broader midterm dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей NY-17
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей NY-17
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
66%
Республиканская партия
33%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$4,054 Объем
66%
Республиканская партия
$5,713 Объем
33%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic nominee Cait Conley holds a 66% implied probability against incumbent Republican Mike Lawler at 31.5% in the November 3, 2026 general election for New York’s 17th congressional district. Conley secured the Democratic nomination in the June 23 primary with nearly 50% of the vote in a crowded field, bringing her background as a U.S. Army veteran and national security official. Lawler, who won narrow reelections in 2022 and 2024 in this Hudson Valley swing district that Kamala Harris carried by a slim margin, faces a competitive rematch rated as a toss-up by forecasters. Recent polling shows mixed head-to-head results, while fundraising data indicates Lawler maintains a significant cash advantage. Trader consensus reflects the district’s narrow partisan balance and the Democratic challenger’s electability focus amid broader midterm dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Объем
$9,767Дата окончания
4 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic nominee Cait Conley holds a 66% implied probability against incumbent Republican Mike Lawler at 31.5% in the November 3, 2026 general election for New York’s 17th congressional district. Conley secured the Democratic nomination in the June 23 primary with nearly 50% of the vote in a crowded field, bringing her background as a U.S. Army veteran and national security official. Lawler, who won narrow reelections in 2022 and 2024 in this Hudson Valley swing district that Kamala Harris carried by a slim margin, faces a competitive rematch rated as a toss-up by forecasters. Recent polling shows mixed head-to-head results, while fundraising data indicates Lawler maintains a significant cash advantage. Trader consensus reflects the district’s narrow partisan balance and the Democratic challenger’s electability focus amid broader midterm dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$9,767Дата окончания
4 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic nominee Cait Conley holds a 66% implied probability against incumbent Republican Mike Lawler at 31.5% in the November 3, 2026 general election for New York’s 17th congressional district. Conley secured the Democratic nomination in the June 23 primary with nearly 50% of the vote in a crowded field, bringing her background as a U.S. Army veteran and national security official. Lawler, who won narrow reelections in 2022 and 2024 in this Hudson Valley swing district that Kamala Harris carried by a slim margin, faces a competitive rematch rated as a toss-up by forecasters. Recent polling shows mixed head-to-head results, while fundraising data indicates Lawler maintains a significant cash advantage. Trader consensus reflects the district’s narrow partisan balance and the Democratic challenger’s electability focus amid broader midterm dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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