Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan faces Republican challenger Jacqueline Auringer in New York's 18th congressional district, encompassing parts of the mid-Hudson Valley including Orange, Dutchess, and Ulster counties. The race remains tight on margin-of-victory contracts, with trader consensus reflecting a competitive environment shaped by the district's modest Democratic lean, Ryan's 2024 reelection margin, and Auringer's primary advancement. Key dynamics include fundraising momentum, local economic concerns, turnout patterns in suburban and rural areas, and the broader 2026 midterm landscape favoring the opposition party. Scheduled developments such as fall debates, candidate endorsements, and national polling shifts on issues like border security could widen or narrow the spread before November 3.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNY-18 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей
NY-18 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей
Democrat 25-30% 37%
Democrat 15-20% 37%
Democrat 35%+ 37%
Democrat 30-35% 37%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Democrat 35%+
37%
Democrat 30-35%
37%
Democrat 25-30%
37%
Democrat 20-25%
37%
Democrat 15-20%
37%
Democrat 10-15%
37%
Democrat 5-10%
37%
Democrat 0-5%
37%
Republican Wins
37%
Democrat 25-30% 37%
Democrat 15-20% 37%
Democrat 35%+ 37%
Democrat 30-35% 37%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Democrat 35%+
$0 Объем
37%
Democrat 30-35%
$0 Объем
37%
Democrat 25-30%
$0 Объем
37%
Democrat 20-25%
$0 Объем
37%
Democrat 15-20%
$0 Объем
37%
Democrat 10-15%
$0 Объем
37%
Democrat 5-10%
$0 Объем
37%
Democrat 0-5%
$0 Объем
37%
Republican Wins
$0 Объем
37%
The 2026 NY-18 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-18 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan faces Republican challenger Jacqueline Auringer in New York's 18th congressional district, encompassing parts of the mid-Hudson Valley including Orange, Dutchess, and Ulster counties. The race remains tight on margin-of-victory contracts, with trader consensus reflecting a competitive environment shaped by the district's modest Democratic lean, Ryan's 2024 reelection margin, and Auringer's primary advancement. Key dynamics include fundraising momentum, local economic concerns, turnout patterns in suburban and rural areas, and the broader 2026 midterm landscape favoring the opposition party. Scheduled developments such as fall debates, candidate endorsements, and national polling shifts on issues like border security could widen or narrow the spread before November 3.
The 2026 NY-18 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-18 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-18 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 11, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 NY-18 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-18 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan faces Republican challenger Jacqueline Auringer in New York's 18th congressional district, encompassing parts of the mid-Hudson Valley including Orange, Dutchess, and Ulster counties. The race remains tight on margin-of-victory contracts, with trader consensus reflecting a competitive environment shaped by the district's modest Democratic lean, Ryan's 2024 reelection margin, and Auringer's primary advancement. Key dynamics include fundraising momentum, local economic concerns, turnout patterns in suburban and rural areas, and the broader 2026 midterm landscape favoring the opposition party. Scheduled developments such as fall debates, candidate endorsements, and national polling shifts on issues like border security could widen or narrow the spread before November 3.
The 2026 NY-18 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-18 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-18 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan faces Republican challenger Jacqueline Auringer in New York's 18th congressional district, encompassing parts of the mid-Hudson Valley including Orange, Dutchess, and Ulster counties. The race remains tight on margin-of-victory contracts, with trader consensus reflecting a competitive environment shaped by the district's modest Democratic lean, Ryan's 2024 reelection margin, and Auringer's primary advancement. Key dynamics include fundraising momentum, local economic concerns, turnout patterns in suburban and rural areas, and the broader 2026 midterm landscape favoring the opposition party. Scheduled developments such as fall debates, candidate endorsements, and national polling shifts on issues like border security could widen or narrow the spread before November 3.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-19 House election by 3% or more?
38%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-17 House election by 0%-3%?
38%
Победит ли кандидат от Республиканской партии на выборах в Палату представителей по округу NY-01 в 2026 году с перевесом в 15%-18%?
38%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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