NY-21 remains a Republican-leaning district in upstate New York, where the open seat—vacated after Elise Stefanik’s prior moves toward higher office—has produced an 82% implied probability for Republican nominee Anthony Constantino against Democrat Blake Gendebien. Constantino secured the GOP nomination in the June 23 primary, while Gendebien won his party’s contest, setting up a November 3 general election. Recent internal Republican developments tied to Stefanik’s earlier UN ambassador nomination and gubernatorial bid have generated modest Democratic optimism and narrowed margins in this historically red district, yet trader consensus continues to reflect the area’s partisan baseline and limited evidence of a broad shift. No major new polls have altered the outlook ahead of the fall campaign.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей NY-21
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей NY-21
$52,748 Объем
$52,748 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
80%
Демократическая партия
18%
$52,748 Объем
$52,748 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
$24,496 Объем
80%
Демократическая партия
$28,252 Объем
18%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-21 remains a Republican-leaning district in upstate New York, where the open seat—vacated after Elise Stefanik’s prior moves toward higher office—has produced an 82% implied probability for Republican nominee Anthony Constantino against Democrat Blake Gendebien. Constantino secured the GOP nomination in the June 23 primary, while Gendebien won his party’s contest, setting up a November 3 general election. Recent internal Republican developments tied to Stefanik’s earlier UN ambassador nomination and gubernatorial bid have generated modest Democratic optimism and narrowed margins in this historically red district, yet trader consensus continues to reflect the area’s partisan baseline and limited evidence of a broad shift. No major new polls have altered the outlook ahead of the fall campaign.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Объем
$52,748Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-21 remains a Republican-leaning district in upstate New York, where the open seat—vacated after Elise Stefanik’s prior moves toward higher office—has produced an 82% implied probability for Republican nominee Anthony Constantino against Democrat Blake Gendebien. Constantino secured the GOP nomination in the June 23 primary, while Gendebien won his party’s contest, setting up a November 3 general election. Recent internal Republican developments tied to Stefanik’s earlier UN ambassador nomination and gubernatorial bid have generated modest Democratic optimism and narrowed margins in this historically red district, yet trader consensus continues to reflect the area’s partisan baseline and limited evidence of a broad shift. No major new polls have altered the outlook ahead of the fall campaign.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$52,748Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...NY-21 remains a Republican-leaning district in upstate New York, where the open seat—vacated after Elise Stefanik’s prior moves toward higher office—has produced an 82% implied probability for Republican nominee Anthony Constantino against Democrat Blake Gendebien. Constantino secured the GOP nomination in the June 23 primary, while Gendebien won his party’s contest, setting up a November 3 general election. Recent internal Republican developments tied to Stefanik’s earlier UN ambassador nomination and gubernatorial bid have generated modest Democratic optimism and narrowed margins in this historically red district, yet trader consensus continues to reflect the area’s partisan baseline and limited evidence of a broad shift. No major new polls have altered the outlook ahead of the fall campaign.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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