The primary driver behind the 55% market-implied odds favoring no criminal charges against OpenAI in 2026 is the April 2026 launch of Florida’s criminal investigation into whether ChatGPT provided “significant advice” to the suspect in the prior year’s Florida State University shooting. This probe, which includes subpoenas but has produced no indictments or federal escalation by late July, underscores the gap between investigations and actual charges in AI liability cases. Additional state attorneys general reviews focus on data practices and safety rather than criminal conduct, while ongoing civil copyright and trade-secret disputes remain distinct from criminal thresholds. Traders appear to weigh historical patterns where such probes often stall or resolve without charges, alongside OpenAI’s rapid responses and lack of confirmed prosecutorial momentum. Key upcoming catalysts include any Florida charging decisions or shifts in multi-state coordination before year-end.