Recent progress in AI-assisted development at both labs drives market positioning, with Anthropic reporting Claude authoring over 80% of merged production code by May 2026 and leading 26% of R&D tasks under human supervision as of August. OpenAI announced an automated research intern in September capable of multi-day tasks and maintains an internal RSI index tracking model improvements in research workflows. Executives at both companies distinguish these capabilities from full autonomous recursive self-improvement, noting humans still set goals and evaluate outputs while cautioning that safe, aligned RSI is not yet achievable. Key upcoming milestones include OpenAI's stated target of a fully automated AI researcher by March 2028, alongside ongoing safety and regulatory discussions that could influence development pace.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоOpenAI или Anthropic объявляют о рекурсивном самосовершенствовании на...?
OpenAI или Anthropic объявляют о рекурсивном самосовершенствовании на...?
НОВОЕ
31 окт. 2026 г.
31 октября 2026 года
10%
31 декабря 2026 года
16%
$540 Объем
31 октября 2026 года
$272 Объем
10%
31 декабря 2026 года
$268 Объем
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent progress in AI-assisted development at both labs drives market positioning, with Anthropic reporting Claude authoring over 80% of merged production code by May 2026 and leading 26% of R&D tasks under human supervision as of August. OpenAI announced an automated research intern in September capable of multi-day tasks and maintains an internal RSI index tracking model improvements in research workflows. Executives at both companies distinguish these capabilities from full autonomous recursive self-improvement, noting humans still set goals and evaluate outputs while cautioning that safe, aligned RSI is not yet achievable. Key upcoming milestones include OpenAI's stated target of a fully automated AI researcher by March 2028, alongside ongoing safety and regulatory discussions that could influence development pace.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ET
Объем
$540Дата окончания
1 янв. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent progress in AI-assisted development at both labs drives market positioning, with Anthropic reporting Claude authoring over 80% of merged production code by May 2026 and leading 26% of R&D tasks under human supervision as of August. OpenAI announced an automated research intern in September capable of multi-day tasks and maintains an internal RSI index tracking model improvements in research workflows. Executives at both companies distinguish these capabilities from full autonomous recursive self-improvement, noting humans still set goals and evaluate outputs while cautioning that safe, aligned RSI is not yet achievable. Key upcoming milestones include OpenAI's stated target of a fully automated AI researcher by March 2028, alongside ongoing safety and regulatory discussions that could influence development pace.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$540Дата окончания
1 янв. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent progress in AI-assisted development at both labs drives market positioning, with Anthropic reporting Claude authoring over 80% of merged production code by May 2026 and leading 26% of R&D tasks under human supervision as of August. OpenAI announced an automated research intern in September capable of multi-day tasks and maintains an internal RSI index tracking model improvements in research workflows. Executives at both companies distinguish these capabilities from full autonomous recursive self-improvement, noting humans still set goals and evaluate outputs while cautioning that safe, aligned RSI is not yet achievable. Key upcoming milestones include OpenAI's stated target of a fully automated AI researcher by March 2028, alongside ongoing safety and regulatory discussions that could influence development pace.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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