Oregon’s 1st congressional district remains a deep-blue seat with a partisan voting index of roughly D+20, covering western Portland suburbs and coastal areas that have delivered Democratic margins above 60 percent in recent cycles. Incumbent Suzanne Bonamici secured her party’s nomination in the May 2026 primary with nearly 87 percent of the vote, while Republican nominee Barbara Kahl advanced with about 72 percent. Bonamici’s consistent general-election performance, including a 68 percent share in 2024, underpins the 94.5 percent Democratic implied probability. A national Republican wave, unforeseen scandal, or sharp drop in Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and the district’s structural lean make such shifts improbable before November.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоOR-01 House Election Winner
OR-01 House Election Winner
$11,707 Объем
$11,707 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$11,707 Объем
$11,707 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Democratic Party
$10,461 Объем
95%
Republican Party
$1,246 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oregon’s 1st congressional district remains a deep-blue seat with a partisan voting index of roughly D+20, covering western Portland suburbs and coastal areas that have delivered Democratic margins above 60 percent in recent cycles. Incumbent Suzanne Bonamici secured her party’s nomination in the May 2026 primary with nearly 87 percent of the vote, while Republican nominee Barbara Kahl advanced with about 72 percent. Bonamici’s consistent general-election performance, including a 68 percent share in 2024, underpins the 94.5 percent Democratic implied probability. A national Republican wave, unforeseen scandal, or sharp drop in Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and the district’s structural lean make such shifts improbable before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Объем
$11,707Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oregon’s 1st congressional district remains a deep-blue seat with a partisan voting index of roughly D+20, covering western Portland suburbs and coastal areas that have delivered Democratic margins above 60 percent in recent cycles. Incumbent Suzanne Bonamici secured her party’s nomination in the May 2026 primary with nearly 87 percent of the vote, while Republican nominee Barbara Kahl advanced with about 72 percent. Bonamici’s consistent general-election performance, including a 68 percent share in 2024, underpins the 94.5 percent Democratic implied probability. A national Republican wave, unforeseen scandal, or sharp drop in Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and the district’s structural lean make such shifts improbable before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$11,707Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Oregon’s 1st congressional district remains a deep-blue seat with a partisan voting index of roughly D+20, covering western Portland suburbs and coastal areas that have delivered Democratic margins above 60 percent in recent cycles. Incumbent Suzanne Bonamici secured her party’s nomination in the May 2026 primary with nearly 87 percent of the vote, while Republican nominee Barbara Kahl advanced with about 72 percent. Bonamici’s consistent general-election performance, including a 68 percent share in 2024, underpins the 94.5 percent Democratic implied probability. A national Republican wave, unforeseen scandal, or sharp drop in Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and the district’s structural lean make such shifts improbable before November.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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