Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley holds a commanding position in the 2026 Oregon Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean, his strong primary performance securing 93% of the vote, and broad institutional support. Republican nominee David Brock Smith, a state senator who prevailed in a fragmented May primary, faces structural headwinds in a state where recent Senate contests have produced double-digit Democratic margins. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Safe or Solid Democratic, reflecting limited Republican fundraising, low national attention, and Oregon's voter registration and turnout patterns. A late-breaking scandal, significant health event affecting Merkley, or unexpected national political realignment could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability factors ahead of the November 3 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Сенат штата Орегон
Победитель выборов в Сенат штата Орегон
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократ
97%
Республиканец
2%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократ
$3,648 Объем
97%
Республиканец
$3,076 Объем
2%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley holds a commanding position in the 2026 Oregon Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean, his strong primary performance securing 93% of the vote, and broad institutional support. Republican nominee David Brock Smith, a state senator who prevailed in a fragmented May primary, faces structural headwinds in a state where recent Senate contests have produced double-digit Democratic margins. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Safe or Solid Democratic, reflecting limited Republican fundraising, low national attention, and Oregon's voter registration and turnout patterns. A late-breaking scandal, significant health event affecting Merkley, or unexpected national political realignment could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability factors ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Открытие рынка: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Объем
$6,724Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley holds a commanding position in the 2026 Oregon Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean, his strong primary performance securing 93% of the vote, and broad institutional support. Republican nominee David Brock Smith, a state senator who prevailed in a fragmented May primary, faces structural headwinds in a state where recent Senate contests have produced double-digit Democratic margins. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Safe or Solid Democratic, reflecting limited Republican fundraising, low national attention, and Oregon's voter registration and turnout patterns. A late-breaking scandal, significant health event affecting Merkley, or unexpected national political realignment could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability factors ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Объем
$6,724Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley holds a commanding position in the 2026 Oregon Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean, his strong primary performance securing 93% of the vote, and broad institutional support. Republican nominee David Brock Smith, a state senator who prevailed in a fragmented May primary, faces structural headwinds in a state where recent Senate contests have produced double-digit Democratic margins. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Safe or Solid Democratic, reflecting limited Republican fundraising, low national attention, and Oregon's voter registration and turnout patterns. A late-breaking scandal, significant health event affecting Merkley, or unexpected national political realignment could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability factors ahead of the November 3 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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