Lloyd Smucker, the Republican incumbent since 2019, holds a strong position in Pennsylvania’s 11th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The seat’s Republican lean—reflected in its R+11 partisan voting index and Smucker’s 63% margin in 2024—underpins trader consensus favoring the GOP nominee at 86.5%. Both major-party candidates, Smucker and Democrat Nancy Mannion, advanced unopposed through May 19 primaries, with no subsequent polling shifts or fundraising surges altering the landscape. An independent candidate adds minor fragmentation but poses limited threat. Historical midterm patterns and the absence of district-specific scandals or national tailwinds for Democrats further anchor the implied probabilities, though late-cycle developments remain possible before Election Day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоPA-11 House Election Winner
PA-11 House Election Winner
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Republican Party
87%
Democratic Party
13%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Republican Party
$2,640 Объем
87%
Democratic Party
$1,082 Объем
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Lloyd Smucker, the Republican incumbent since 2019, holds a strong position in Pennsylvania’s 11th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The seat’s Republican lean—reflected in its R+11 partisan voting index and Smucker’s 63% margin in 2024—underpins trader consensus favoring the GOP nominee at 86.5%. Both major-party candidates, Smucker and Democrat Nancy Mannion, advanced unopposed through May 19 primaries, with no subsequent polling shifts or fundraising surges altering the landscape. An independent candidate adds minor fragmentation but poses limited threat. Historical midterm patterns and the absence of district-specific scandals or national tailwinds for Democrats further anchor the implied probabilities, though late-cycle developments remain possible before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Объем
$3,722Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Lloyd Smucker, the Republican incumbent since 2019, holds a strong position in Pennsylvania’s 11th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The seat’s Republican lean—reflected in its R+11 partisan voting index and Smucker’s 63% margin in 2024—underpins trader consensus favoring the GOP nominee at 86.5%. Both major-party candidates, Smucker and Democrat Nancy Mannion, advanced unopposed through May 19 primaries, with no subsequent polling shifts or fundraising surges altering the landscape. An independent candidate adds minor fragmentation but poses limited threat. Historical midterm patterns and the absence of district-specific scandals or national tailwinds for Democrats further anchor the implied probabilities, though late-cycle developments remain possible before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$3,722Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Lloyd Smucker, the Republican incumbent since 2019, holds a strong position in Pennsylvania’s 11th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The seat’s Republican lean—reflected in its R+11 partisan voting index and Smucker’s 63% margin in 2024—underpins trader consensus favoring the GOP nominee at 86.5%. Both major-party candidates, Smucker and Democrat Nancy Mannion, advanced unopposed through May 19 primaries, with no subsequent polling shifts or fundraising surges altering the landscape. An independent candidate adds minor fragmentation but poses limited threat. Historical midterm patterns and the absence of district-specific scandals or national tailwinds for Democrats further anchor the implied probabilities, though late-cycle developments remain possible before Election Day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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