Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holds the leading 49% implied probability in this market primarily due to his current role as Health and Human Services Secretary and the resonance of his Make America Healthy Again agenda with Republican voters focused on regulatory reform and anti-establishment themes. Vice President J.D. Vance sits at 36% amid his institutional position and early straw poll wins, though some recent surveys show softening support among Republican-leaning respondents. Marco Rubio at 25% reflects ongoing positioning as a Senate-confirmed cabinet official with foreign policy experience. The wide field remains fluid more than two years before the convention, with no candidate securing a dominant coalition yet and outcomes highly sensitive to future endorsements, legislative votes, and administration developments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоRon DeSantis calls special session to redraw Florida congressional districts
Ron DeSantis rises to 5%1%
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis announced plans for a special legislative session to redraw congressional districts, a move seen as a strategic political effort that increased his visibility and market price as a potential presidential nominee.
Marco Rubio's steady campaign efforts raise his nomination chances
Marco Rubio rises to 25%3%
Rubio's consistent campaigning and endorsements helped increase his market price, reflecting growing support within the Republican base.
Vice President JD Vance attacked at home, detained suspect charged
A man broke windows at Vice President JD Vance’s Ohio home and was detained and charged, raising security concerns but also drawing public sympathy and support for Vance, which may have influenced his market price.
Man arrested for vandalism at JD Vance’s Ohio home
A man broke windows and damaged property at Vice President JD Vance’s residence, leading to his detention and highlighting security concerns around Vance, which may have affected public perception and market confidence.
Marco Rubio gains prominence as Trump’s foreign policy quarterback on Venezuela
Marco Rubio rises to 23%2%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio took a leading role in explaining and managing the Trump administration’s foreign policy actions in Venezuela, including the capture of Nicolás Maduro, which increased his visibility and market support as a potential nominee.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt announces pregnancy, boosting pro-family image
J.D. Vance dips to 36%3%
Leavitt’s pregnancy announcement alongside the Vance family’s growing size highlighted the administration’s pro-family stance, indirectly supporting Vance’s image as a family-oriented candidate.
Vance’s campaign announces fourth child due in July, boosting personal appeal
J.D. Vance dips to 44%1%
The announcement of a new child humanized Vance and resonated with family‑oriented voters, contributing to a modest price uptick.
Tucker Carlson’s nomination odds slightly improve amid conservative media attention
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%3%
Carlson’s market price rose modestly to 6% as he maintained a media presence and defended his positions despite criticism, reflecting a small but stable support base.
Turning Point USA reaffirms support for JD Vance amid conservative party discord
J.D. Vance rises to 39%1%
Turning Point USA publicly reiterated its backing of Vance despite internal Republican tensions, reinforcing his frontrunner status and stabilizing his market price amid party factionalism.
Second lady Usha Vance announces pregnancy with fourth child
J.D. Vance rises to 39%1%
The announcement of the Vance family's fourth child brought positive media attention to JD Vance, reinforcing his family-oriented image and potentially supporting his candidacy.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 Republican presidential nomination
J.D. Vance rises to 40%1%
Erika Kirk, CEO of Turning Point USA, publicly endorsed Vice President JD Vance for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, signaling strong organizational support and mobilization behind Vance, boosting his market price.
JD Vance’s team deletes social media post referring to ‘Armenian genocide’
J.D. Vance dips to 38%1%
Vance’s team removed a social media post using the term 'Armenian genocide,' a sensitive diplomatic issue, reflecting caution in foreign policy messaging and causing minor market uncertainty.
Marco Rubio’s diplomatic efforts on Greenland and Venezuela maintain his profile
Marco Rubio rises to 25%3%
Rubio’s meetings with Danish officials about Greenland and his role in Venezuela policy kept him relevant in the nomination race, supporting a modest increase in his market price.
Conservative feud erupts at Turning Point USA conference over MAGA movement's future
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%1%
At the Turning Point USA conference, prominent conservatives including Ben Shapiro and Tucker Carlson clashed over the direction of the MAGA movement, with Shapiro criticizing Carlson for associating with far-right figures. This public discord highlighted divisions within the Republican base, impacting perceptions of candidates aligned with these factions.
JD Vance and Jake Paul attend U.S. women’s hockey game at Winter Olympics
J.D. Vance rises to 39%1%
Vance’s public appearance with popular influencer Jake Paul at a high-profile Olympic event increased his visibility among younger and broader audiences, slightly boosting his market perception.
Marco Rubio’s market price surges amid speculation of supporting JD Vance
Marco Rubio jumps to 26%12%
Marco Rubio’s price rose sharply as he publicly expressed support for Vance’s potential 2028 run, signaling party consolidation and boosting Rubio’s own prospects as a possible running mate or alternative.
Tucker Carlson's market price rises slightly amid ongoing conservative media presence
Tucker Carlson rises to 5%3%
Tucker Carlson's modest price increase reflects continued media influence and conservative audience support, though his overall nomination chances remain low.
JD Vance praises Trump administration’s abortion policies at March for Life rally
Vance highlighted the Trump administration’s achievements against abortion rights, aligning with conservative social values and energizing the base, which supported his market standing.
Marco Rubio gains traction in 2028 nomination market
Marco Rubio surges to 28%15%
Marco Rubio's market price saw a significant jump, reflecting increased speculation about his potential candidacy as the primary field began to narrow.
Turning Point USA AmericaFest highlights Republican Party divisions ahead of 2028
J.D. Vance drops to 37%5%
The Turning Point USA AmericaFest conference showcased significant discord within the Republican Party, with prominent conservatives like Ben Shapiro and Tucker Carlson clashing over the movement's direction. Vice President J.D. Vance was praised but also faced criticism, illustrating the challenges in uniting the party post-Trump, which influenced market perceptions and candidate support dynamics.
Marco Rubio's Senate Foreign Relations Committee briefing commitment boosts his profile
Marco Rubio jumps to 26%14%
Senator Marco Rubio's commitment to brief the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Venezuela war powers increased his visibility and support among Republicans, reflected in a price jump.
Vance appears with influencer Jake Paul at women’s hockey game
J.D. Vance dips to 45%2%
The unusual pairing attracted viral attention, keeping Vance in the public conversation and supporting his market price.
Ron DeSantis calls special session to redraw Florida congressional districts
Ron DeSantis plunges to 3%47%
Governor Ron DeSantis called a special legislative session in Florida to redraw congressional districts, aiming to strengthen Republican control ahead of the 2026 midterms. This move was part of a broader national redistricting battle influenced by a recent Supreme Court ruling, but DeSantis's political standing weakened, reflected in his market price plummeting from 50% to 3% in mid-2025 and remaining low.
JD Vance touts Trump administration’s anti-abortion record at March for Life rally
J.D. Vance dips to 38%4%
Vance publicly praised the Trump administration’s achievements on abortion restrictions, reinforcing his conservative credentials and energizing his base, which contributed to a temporary market price stabilization.
Turning Point USA AmericaFest highlights GOP factionalism and Vance’s rising influence
J.D. Vance dips to 51%1%
At the Turning Point USA conference, conservative leaders clashed over the future of the GOP, with Vance receiving praise and endorsement from Erika Kirk, reinforcing his frontrunner status despite internal party tensions.
JD Vance criticizes local officials amid Minneapolis immigration unrest
J.D. Vance rises to 46%4%
Vance publicly blamed local officials for unrest during immigration enforcement in Minneapolis, reinforcing his law-and-order stance and appealing to conservative voters, impacting his market position positively.
Florida Rep. Byron Donalds announces 2026 gubernatorial bid with Trump endorsement
Donald Trump Jr. dips to 2%1%
Byron Donalds, a staunch Trump ally and U.S. Representative from Florida, announced his candidacy for governor in 2026 with President Donald Trump's endorsement, signaling Trump's influence in Florida politics and affecting the market perception of candidates like Donald Trump Jr. and Ron DeSantis.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance's Ohio home and is detained by Secret Service
An attack on Vance's home brought media attention and sympathy, highlighting security concerns and possibly affecting public perception and market price.
Marco Rubio gains attention as part of U.S. Olympic delegation with Vance
Marco Rubio jumps to 22%8%
Marco Rubio’s inclusion alongside Vance in the U.S. delegation to the Winter Olympics increased his visibility and market price, benefiting from association with the vice president.
Vance leads U.S. delegation to Armenia and Azerbaijan peace talks
J.D. Vance dips to 47%2%
Vance’s diplomatic mission to the South Caucasus highlighted his foreign‑policy credentials, further bolstering his nomination prospects.
JD Vance leads U.S. delegation at 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan
J.D. Vance drops to 42%5%
Vance’s prominent role at the Winter Olympics, including diplomatic and family appearances, enhanced his national profile and demonstrated leadership, supporting his candidacy perception.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home and is detained by Secret Service
An attack on Vance's home by a man wielding a hammer raised security concerns and drew public sympathy, slightly stabilizing his market price amid other pressures.
JD Vance visits Leonardo’s Last Supper during Olympic stay in Milan
J.D. Vance dips to 49%2%
Vance’s VIP access to a cultural landmark during the Olympics generated additional media coverage, sustaining his upward price trend.
JD Vance booed by crowd at Milan Cortina Winter Olympics opening ceremony
J.D. Vance drops to 46%8%
Despite leading the delegation, Vance was booed by some spectators at the opening ceremony, reflecting polarized public opinion and causing some negative market reaction.
JD Vance leads U.S. delegation at 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony
J.D. Vance jumps to 54%8%
Vance's prominent role leading the U.S. delegation at the Winter Olympics opening ceremony in Italy increased his visibility and diplomatic stature, contributing to a temporary boost in his market price.
Marco Rubio joins JD Vance at Winter Olympics delegation
Marco Rubio jumps to 27%6%
Rubio’s inclusion in the Olympic delegation gave him a brief media boost, lifting his price from 21% to 27% by mid‑March.
Marco Rubio joins JD Vance in U.S. delegation to Winter Olympics opening ceremony
Marco Rubio rises to 25%3%
Rubio’s inclusion in the high‑visibility Olympic delegation raised his national profile, coinciding with a sharp rise in his market price.
Vice President JD Vance casts tiebreaking vote to kill Venezuela war powers resolution
Vance broke a 50-50 Senate tie to kill a resolution that would have restricted Trump's military actions in Venezuela, signaling strong party alignment and impacting perceptions of his influence.
Vice President J.D. Vance casts tiebreaking Senate vote to kill Venezuela war powers resolution
J.D. Vance dips to 49%3%
Vice President J.D. Vance cast the deciding vote in the Senate to kill a resolution that would have limited President Trump's military actions in Venezuela, aligning with the administration's stance and reinforcing his political alignment with Trump. This action maintained Vance's prominence but did not significantly boost his market price, which began a gradual decline afterward.
JD Vance touts Trump’s anti‑abortion record at March for Life rally
J.D. Vance dips to 51%1%
Vance’s high‑profile appearance at the March for Life rally highlighted his alignment with core Republican voters, reinforcing his nomination momentum.
Vance announces pregnancy of fourth child
J.D. Vance dips to 47%3%
Vice President J.D. Vance and his wife announced they are expecting their fourth child, reinforcing his public image as a pro-family leader.
Turning Point USA plans early support for JD Vance in key primary states
J.D. Vance rises to 55%3%
Following Erika Kirk's endorsement, Turning Point USA announced plans to support JD Vance in early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire, reinforcing his campaign infrastructure and boosting market confidence.
Republican National Committee adopts amendment to hold midterms convention
The RNC's decision to hold a midterms convention was seen as a strategic move to energize the party base and support candidates, indirectly affecting the presidential nomination landscape.
Vice President JD Vance touts Trump administration's anti-abortion record at March for Life
Vance highlighted the Trump administration's achievements on abortion restrictions, appealing to conservative voters and reinforcing his standing within the party.
Suspect in vandalism of JD Vance’s home pleads not guilty in federal court
The suspect charged with vandalizing Vance’s home pleaded not guilty, prolonging legal proceedings and keeping the incident in public attention, which maintained market focus on Vance’s security and public image.
Supreme Court hears Republican-led challenge to political spending limits including JD Vance
The Supreme Court heard a case challenging limits on political party spending, with Vice President JD Vance involved, raising speculation about his political ambitions and affecting market perceptions.
Marco Rubio outlines US strategy for Venezuela post-Maduro
Rubio clarified that the US would enforce an oil embargo and use leverage to press for policy changes in Venezuela, tempering concerns about direct governance and stabilizing his nomination odds.
Trump administration conducts military operation capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro
Marco Rubio jumps to 26%12%
President Donald Trump's administration executed a military operation that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio playing a key role in briefing Congress and managing the foreign policy narrative. This event bolstered Rubio's profile, reflected in his market price rising from 14% to 26% in early 2026.
Vandalism incident at J.D. Vance's Ohio home
J.D. Vance dips to 50%2%
A man was detained after breaking windows at the Vice President's home, an event that kept Vance in the news cycle during a period of political jockeying.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home and is detained by Secret Service
A security incident occurred when a man vandalized Vice President Vance's home, causing significant damage and leading to federal charges. This event highlighted security concerns but also elicited public sympathy for Vance, stabilizing his market position.
US military operation captures Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro
Marco Rubio jumps to 15%7%
The Trump administration, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and supported by Vice President JD Vance, conducted a military operation that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, boosting Rubio's profile and impacting the nomination market.
Vance says Insurrection Act not needed in Minneapolis amid immigration crackdown
J.D. Vance dips to 51%2%
Vance’s public statement downplaying the need for the Insurrection Act kept him in the news while reinforcing his law‑and‑order image, causing a slight dip in his price.
Turning Point USA endorses J.D. Vance for 2028
J.D. Vance dips to 53%3%
Erika Kirk, CEO of Turning Point USA, officially endorsed Vice President J.D. Vance for the 2028 presidential nomination, solidifying his position as the movement's preferred candidate.
Vice President J.D. Vance addresses conservative discord at Turning Point USA conference
J.D. Vance dips to 52%2%
At the Turning Point USA AmericaFest conference, Vice President J.D. Vance emphasized inclusivity within the conservative movement and declined to condemn antisemitism, aiming to unify the party amid internal conflicts. This event highlighted the challenges Vance faces in consolidating support, contributing to a gradual decline in his market price from late 2025 into early 2026.
JD Vance condemns attacks on his wife by far-right figures
J.D. Vance rises to 54%1%
Vance publicly denounced racist attacks on his wife by far-right podcaster Nick Fuentes and others, asserting a strong personal stance that resonated with moderate conservatives and helped maintain his support.
JD Vance defends his wife amid racist attacks, strengthening his public image
Vice President JD Vance publicly condemned racist attacks against his wife, Usha Vance, including those by far-right podcaster Nick Fuentes, asserting a strong protective stance that resonated with supporters and helped stabilize his nomination odds.
Vice President JD Vance condemns attacks on his wife amid antisemitism debate
Vance publicly condemned attacks on his wife by far-right figures, including Nick Fuentes, signaling his stance against bigotry within the party and affecting his support among conservatives.
JD Vance posts then deletes reference to Armenian genocide during diplomatic visit
J.D. Vance dips to 52%2%
Vance’s social‑media post about the Armenian genocide was quickly removed after criticism, generating a brief controversy that modestly affected his market perception.
Vice President JD Vance announces expecting fourth child
J.D. Vance rises to 54%1%
Vance and his wife announced they are expecting their fourth child, highlighting his family-oriented image which aligns with his political messaging on family values, positively influencing his market perception.
Vice President JD Vance condemns attacks on his wife amid racist backlash
Vance strongly defended his wife Usha Vance against racist attacks, including those by right-wing podcaster Nick Fuentes, reinforcing his personal and political resolve, which helped maintain his market support.
JD Vance criticizes Israel's parliament vote on West Bank annexation
JD Vance publicly criticized a controversial vote in Israel's parliament, demonstrating his engagement in foreign policy issues and maintaining his visibility in national politics, supporting his sustained market interest.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 Republican presidential nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Turning Point USA, a major conservative grassroots organization, endorsed Vice President JD Vance as a potential successor to Donald Trump, providing him with significant volunteer support and boosting his nomination odds from 29% to over 50%.
JD Vance announces fourth child due in July 2026
J.D. Vance dips to 51%3%
Vance’s personal family news generated positive media coverage and human‑interest appeal, nudging his price upward from 54% to 51% as voters perceived him as family‑oriented.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home, Secret Service detains suspect
J.D. Vance drops to 53%6%
A vandal broke windows at Vance’s Cincinnati residence, prompting a Secret Service response and extensive media coverage that kept Vance in the public eye and slightly softened his price momentum.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home, detained by Secret Service
The security incident drew national attention to Vance’s personal safety but did not negatively affect his market price, which remained stable around 55% after the event.
JD Vance’s market price spikes to 55% after Turning Point endorsement
Following the endorsement, Vance’s price peaked at 55% on August 31, reflecting increased confidence among bettors that he will secure the nomination.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 Republican nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
At the AmericaFest convention, Turning Point USA leader Erika Kirk publicly backed Vice President JD Vance, signaling strong grassroots support and prompting a sharp rise in Vance’s market price from 29% to 55%.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance at AmericaFest convention
J.D. Vance rises to 59%4%
Turning Point USA’s annual AmericaFest convention featured a closing speech by Vice President JD Vance and an explicit endorsement from leader Erika Kirk, signaling strong grassroots support and boosting Vance’s nomination prospects.
Early Republican field sees major shifts in nomination prospects
Initial market sentiment saw a sharp decline for Ron DeSantis, Glenn Youngkin, and Donald Trump Jr., while J.D. Vance began to emerge as a primary contender.
Turning Point USA endorses Vice President J.D. Vance for 2028 Republican presidential nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Turning Point USA, a major conservative organization, publicly endorsed Vice President J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, signaling strong grassroots and organizational support. This endorsement coincided with a sharp rise in Vance's market price from 29% to 55% in late July 2025, reflecting increased confidence in his candidacy.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance as potential 2028 Republican nominee
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Turning Point USA, a major conservative grassroots organization, publicly endorsed Vice President JD Vance as a potential successor to President Trump, boosting Vance's profile and market price significantly.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 Republican presidential nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Turning Point USA, led by Erika Kirk, publicly endorsed Vice President JD Vance for president in 2028 and began organizing grassroots support in key early primary states, significantly boosting Vance's market price from 29% to 55%.
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