Allyson Bezerra (União Brasil) holds an 88.5% implied probability in the Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial runoff after securing 36.94% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, narrowly ahead of Cadu de Lula (PT) at 36.16%, with Álvaro Dias (PL) third at roughly 26.8%. No candidate reached the 50% threshold required for outright victory, triggering the October 25 second round between the top two finishers. Pre-election surveys from institutes including Quaest, Exatus, and Atlas showed Allyson maintaining a lead or competitive position through late September, supported by her record as re-elected Mossoró mayor and emphasis on administrative management, while Cadu positioned himself as the continuity candidate tied to the outgoing PT administration of Fátima Bezerra. Traders price the outcome as a clear favorite for Allyson based on her first-round edge and historical patterns in Brazilian state runoffs.