**Vance holds a commanding position in early 2028 Republican primary polling, with recent surveys from The Center Square and Financial Times/Focaldata placing him at 38-44% support compared to Rubio’s 18-24%.** Rubio, serving as Secretary of State, has publicly stated he has no current plans to seek the nomination and has indicated he would back Vance if the vice president runs. Trump has privately signaled preference for Vance as his successor while praising Rubio’s performance in his cabinet role. With only days remaining until October 31 and no major developments such as new polling surges, candidate announcements, or shifts in party endorsements on the horizon, traders assign very low odds to any near-term reversal. A sudden Vance-related controversy or Rubio campaign launch could theoretically alter the dynamic, though both remain remote given the compressed timeline and current positioning.