Putin’s entrenched control over Russia’s security services, military command, and elite networks continues to suppress organized challenges, with tightened personal protections and surveillance measures instituted since March 2026 limiting opportunities for dissent. Reports of elite restlessness tied to the Ukraine war have prompted heightened vigilance but produced no verifiable plots or factional mobilization by mid-August. Analysts note the absence of credible precursors for a coup attempt, consistent with the regime’s post-2023 consolidation of loyalty among key institutions and the lack of viable alternative power centers. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers and the low incidence of successful challenges against consolidated autocracies facing external pressures.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено7% вероятность
$118,354 Объем
$118,354 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
7% вероятность
$118,354 Объем
$118,354 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin’s entrenched control over Russia’s security services, military command, and elite networks continues to suppress organized challenges, with tightened personal protections and surveillance measures instituted since March 2026 limiting opportunities for dissent. Reports of elite restlessness tied to the Ukraine war have prompted heightened vigilance but produced no verifiable plots or factional mobilization by mid-August. Analysts note the absence of credible precursors for a coup attempt, consistent with the regime’s post-2023 consolidation of loyalty among key institutions and the lack of viable alternative power centers. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers and the low incidence of successful challenges against consolidated autocracies facing external pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Объем
$118,354Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin’s entrenched control over Russia’s security services, military command, and elite networks continues to suppress organized challenges, with tightened personal protections and surveillance measures instituted since March 2026 limiting opportunities for dissent. Reports of elite restlessness tied to the Ukraine war have prompted heightened vigilance but produced no verifiable plots or factional mobilization by mid-August. Analysts note the absence of credible precursors for a coup attempt, consistent with the regime’s post-2023 consolidation of loyalty among key institutions and the lack of viable alternative power centers. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers and the low incidence of successful challenges against consolidated autocracies facing external pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$118,354Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Putin’s entrenched control over Russia’s security services, military command, and elite networks continues to suppress organized challenges, with tightened personal protections and surveillance measures instituted since March 2026 limiting opportunities for dissent. Reports of elite restlessness tied to the Ukraine war have prompted heightened vigilance but produced no verifiable plots or factional mobilization by mid-August. Analysts note the absence of credible precursors for a coup attempt, consistent with the regime’s post-2023 consolidation of loyalty among key institutions and the lack of viable alternative power centers. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers and the low incidence of successful challenges against consolidated autocracies facing external pressures.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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