Recent U.S.-mediated talks, including trilateral meetings in Geneva and earlier sessions in Abu Dhabi, produced only limited progress on ceasefire monitoring mechanisms and prisoner exchanges, while core disputes over territory, security guarantees, and Ukrainian elections after any halt persist. A U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire in May 2026 enabled limited prisoner swaps but quickly faced mutual violation claims and did not extend. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has issued open proposals for immediate frontline halts and direct meetings, yet Russian President Putin has rejected bilateral talks without prior concessions on Donbas control and related demands. As of mid-August 2026, Kyiv has forwarded fresh proposals to Washington and Moscow signals openness only to U.S.-originated terms ahead of its September parliamentary elections. Traders price a full ceasefire agreement by year-end at roughly 25%, reflecting entrenched military activity, stalled diplomacy, and absence of de-escalation signals since early 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСоглашение о прекращении огня между Россией и Украиной...?
Соглашение о прекращении огня между Россией и Украиной...?
$5,911,431 Объем
31 окт. 2026 г.
31 октября
11%
31 августа
2%
31 декабря
27%
$5,911,431 Объем
31 октября
$846,530 Объем
11%
31 августа
$389,074 Объем
2%
31 декабря
$2,138,657 Объем
27%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-mediated talks, including trilateral meetings in Geneva and earlier sessions in Abu Dhabi, produced only limited progress on ceasefire monitoring mechanisms and prisoner exchanges, while core disputes over territory, security guarantees, and Ukrainian elections after any halt persist. A U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire in May 2026 enabled limited prisoner swaps but quickly faced mutual violation claims and did not extend. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has issued open proposals for immediate frontline halts and direct meetings, yet Russian President Putin has rejected bilateral talks without prior concessions on Donbas control and related demands. As of mid-August 2026, Kyiv has forwarded fresh proposals to Washington and Moscow signals openness only to U.S.-originated terms ahead of its September parliamentary elections. Traders price a full ceasefire agreement by year-end at roughly 25%, reflecting entrenched military activity, stalled diplomacy, and absence of de-escalation signals since early 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Объем
$5,911,431Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-mediated talks, including trilateral meetings in Geneva and earlier sessions in Abu Dhabi, produced only limited progress on ceasefire monitoring mechanisms and prisoner exchanges, while core disputes over territory, security guarantees, and Ukrainian elections after any halt persist. A U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire in May 2026 enabled limited prisoner swaps but quickly faced mutual violation claims and did not extend. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has issued open proposals for immediate frontline halts and direct meetings, yet Russian President Putin has rejected bilateral talks without prior concessions on Donbas control and related demands. As of mid-August 2026, Kyiv has forwarded fresh proposals to Washington and Moscow signals openness only to U.S.-originated terms ahead of its September parliamentary elections. Traders price a full ceasefire agreement by year-end at roughly 25%, reflecting entrenched military activity, stalled diplomacy, and absence of de-escalation signals since early 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$5,911,431Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-mediated talks, including trilateral meetings in Geneva and earlier sessions in Abu Dhabi, produced only limited progress on ceasefire monitoring mechanisms and prisoner exchanges, while core disputes over territory, security guarantees, and Ukrainian elections after any halt persist. A U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire in May 2026 enabled limited prisoner swaps but quickly faced mutual violation claims and did not extend. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has issued open proposals for immediate frontline halts and direct meetings, yet Russian President Putin has rejected bilateral talks without prior concessions on Donbas control and related demands. As of mid-August 2026, Kyiv has forwarded fresh proposals to Washington and Moscow signals openness only to U.S.-originated terms ahead of its September parliamentary elections. Traders price a full ceasefire agreement by year-end at roughly 25%, reflecting entrenched military activity, stalled diplomacy, and absence of de-escalation signals since early 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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