**The market reflects uncertainty over whether Saxony-Anhalt’s post-election deadlock will trigger a snap Landtag election before the end of 2026.** The regular state election on 6 September produced a fragmented parliament: the AfD took 39 of 83 seats on 43.8% of the vote, while the CDU, SPD, Greens, and Left together also hold 39 seats and the BSW holds five. No bloc commands the 42-seat majority needed to elect a Minister-President under the state constitution’s multi-round process. Talks are underway, particularly between the AfD and BSW, with the latter open to issue-based support or abstention but ruling out a formal coalition or directly backing AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund. The CDU has signaled it will move to opposition after its sharp decline, and firewall commitments limit other combinations. If no candidate secures an absolute majority in the first two ballots after the new Landtag convenes (by 6 October), a dissolution vote becomes possible within fourteen days; failure to dissolve leads to a plurality vote that could still leave governance unresolved. Trader pricing near 50% captures the narrow path to either a fragile agreement (via BSW abstentions, limited cross-party deals, or rare defections) or prolonged impasse that meets the constitutional threshold for early elections. High turnout and the recency of the vote reduce immediate appetite for another contest, yet the arithmetic and procedural rules keep the outcome finely balanced.