The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026, grant of certiorari in the consolidated Viramontes v. Cook County and Grant v. Higgins cases—directly testing whether the Second Amendment protects AR-15-style semiautomatic rifles—has anchored trader expectations near even odds. These challenges target Illinois and Connecticut assault weapons bans and will receive argument this fall under the Bruen framework, which requires historical analogues for modern restrictions. Signals from Justices Kavanaugh and others in the 2025 Snope denial, combined with the Court’s recent gun-rights rulings, support a modest edge for invalidation, yet the lack of a final decision, potential for narrow holdings, and shifting lower-court precedents on common-use arms introduce meaningful uncertainty reflected in the current 56% consensus.