Trader consensus favors "No" at 80.5% implied probability for Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya's arrest by May 31, driven by the Mexican federal government's resistance to a U.S. extradition request following his April 29 indictment by the Southern District of New York on drug trafficking and weapons charges tied to the Sinaloa Cartel. Rocha, a Morena affiliate, temporarily stepped down as governor on May 2 but remains at large in Mexico, with President Claudia Sheinbaum stating on May 12 that evidence is insufficient for an arrest warrant under Mexican law. No action by the Fiscalía General de la República (FGR) has materialized despite U.S. pressure, amid reports of his protection by state security and attacks on his properties, underscoring diplomatic tensions and judicial hurdles likely to delay any detention before the deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$12,999 Объем
$12,999 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
Да
$12,999 Объем
$12,999 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sinaloa Governor Ruben Rocha Moya is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors "No" at 80.5% implied probability for Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya's arrest by May 31, driven by the Mexican federal government's resistance to a U.S. extradition request following his April 29 indictment by the Southern District of New York on drug trafficking and weapons charges tied to the Sinaloa Cartel. Rocha, a Morena affiliate, temporarily stepped down as governor on May 2 but remains at large in Mexico, with President Claudia Sheinbaum stating on May 12 that evidence is insufficient for an arrest warrant under Mexican law. No action by the Fiscalía General de la República (FGR) has materialized despite U.S. pressure, amid reports of his protection by state security and attacks on his properties, underscoring diplomatic tensions and judicial hurdles likely to delay any detention before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sinaloa Governor Ruben Rocha Moya is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 30, 2026, 3:14 PM ET
Объем
$12,999Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 30, 2026, 3:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sinaloa Governor Ruben Rocha Moya is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors "No" at 80.5% implied probability for Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya's arrest by May 31, driven by the Mexican federal government's resistance to a U.S. extradition request following his April 29 indictment by the Southern District of New York on drug trafficking and weapons charges tied to the Sinaloa Cartel. Rocha, a Morena affiliate, temporarily stepped down as governor on May 2 but remains at large in Mexico, with President Claudia Sheinbaum stating on May 12 that evidence is insufficient for an arrest warrant under Mexican law. No action by the Fiscalía General de la República (FGR) has materialized despite U.S. pressure, amid reports of his protection by state security and attacks on his properties, underscoring diplomatic tensions and judicial hurdles likely to delay any detention before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sinaloa Governor Ruben Rocha Moya is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$12,999Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 30, 2026, 3:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 80.5% implied probability for Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya's arrest by May 31, driven by the Mexican federal government's resistance to a U.S. extradition request following his April 29 indictment by the Southern District of New York on drug trafficking and weapons charges tied to the Sinaloa Cartel. Rocha, a Morena affiliate, temporarily stepped down as governor on May 2 but remains at large in Mexico, with President Claudia Sheinbaum stating on May 12 that evidence is insufficient for an arrest warrant under Mexican law. No action by the Fiscalía General de la República (FGR) has materialized despite U.S. pressure, amid reports of his protection by state security and attacks on his properties, underscoring diplomatic tensions and judicial hurdles likely to delay any detention before the deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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