Persistent upward pressure from the Iran war-driven oil price shock has elevated South African headline inflation, with the June 2026 print reaching 5.0% year-over-year before easing to 4.3% in July amid higher fuel and transport costs. The South African Reserve Bank’s baseline forecast now projects a 4.4% average for full-year 2026—revised higher from prior estimates—with inflation expected to remain above the 3% target (plus or minus 1 percentage point) through much of the year before converging only in 2028. Trader consensus on Polymarket, heavily weighted toward outcomes above 4.4%, embeds ongoing geopolitical supply risks, potential second-round effects on wages and expectations, and the upcoming September 23 Monetary Policy Committee decision amid recent Fed tightening. Recent BER surveys show 2026 expectations stabilized at 4.4%, underscoring the balance between contained core pressures and external volatility.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено>5,0% 40.4%
4,7-5,0% 29.5%
4,4-4,7% 27.0%
3,5–3,8% 4.4%
$63,632 Объем
$63,632 Объем
20 янв. 2027 г.
<2,6%
4%
2,6–2,9%
1%
2,9-3,2%
4%
3,2-3,5%
2%
3,5–3,8%
4%
3,8-4,1%
2%
4,1-4,4%
3%
4,4-4,7%
27%
4,7-5,0%
30%
>5,0%
40%
>5,0% 40.4%
4,7-5,0% 29.5%
4,4-4,7% 27.0%
3,5–3,8% 4.4%
$63,632 Объем
$63,632 Объем
20 янв. 2027 г.
<2,6%
$1,771 Объем
4%
2,6–2,9%
$2,186 Объем
1%
2,9-3,2%
$1,886 Объем
4%
3,2-3,5%
$1,917 Объем
2%
3,5–3,8%
$2,139 Объем
4%
3,8-4,1%
$3,779 Объем
2%
4,1-4,4%
$4,012 Объем
3%
4,4-4,7%
$21,885 Объем
27%
4,7-5,0%
$9,286 Объем
30%
>5,0%
$14,772 Объем
40%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874Persistent upward pressure from the Iran war-driven oil price shock has elevated South African headline inflation, with the June 2026 print reaching 5.0% year-over-year before easing to 4.3% in July amid higher fuel and transport costs. The South African Reserve Bank’s baseline forecast now projects a 4.4% average for full-year 2026—revised higher from prior estimates—with inflation expected to remain above the 3% target (plus or minus 1 percentage point) through much of the year before converging only in 2028. Trader consensus on Polymarket, heavily weighted toward outcomes above 4.4%, embeds ongoing geopolitical supply risks, potential second-round effects on wages and expectations, and the upcoming September 23 Monetary Policy Committee decision amid recent Fed tightening. Recent BER surveys show 2026 expectations stabilized at 4.4%, underscoring the balance between contained core pressures and external volatility.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Открытие рынка: Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Объем
$63,632Дата окончания
21 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874Persistent upward pressure from the Iran war-driven oil price shock has elevated South African headline inflation, with the June 2026 print reaching 5.0% year-over-year before easing to 4.3% in July amid higher fuel and transport costs. The South African Reserve Bank’s baseline forecast now projects a 4.4% average for full-year 2026—revised higher from prior estimates—with inflation expected to remain above the 3% target (plus or minus 1 percentage point) through much of the year before converging only in 2028. Trader consensus on Polymarket, heavily weighted toward outcomes above 4.4%, embeds ongoing geopolitical supply risks, potential second-round effects on wages and expectations, and the upcoming September 23 Monetary Policy Committee decision amid recent Fed tightening. Recent BER surveys show 2026 expectations stabilized at 4.4%, underscoring the balance between contained core pressures and external volatility.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Объем
$63,632Дата окончания
21 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent upward pressure from the Iran war-driven oil price shock has elevated South African headline inflation, with the June 2026 print reaching 5.0% year-over-year before easing to 4.3% in July amid higher fuel and transport costs. The South African Reserve Bank’s baseline forecast now projects a 4.4% average for full-year 2026—revised higher from prior estimates—with inflation expected to remain above the 3% target (plus or minus 1 percentage point) through much of the year before converging only in 2028. Trader consensus on Polymarket, heavily weighted toward outcomes above 4.4%, embeds ongoing geopolitical supply risks, potential second-round effects on wages and expectations, and the upcoming September 23 Monetary Policy Committee decision amid recent Fed tightening. Recent BER surveys show 2026 expectations stabilized at 4.4%, underscoring the balance between contained core pressures and external volatility.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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