PP leads the Cuenca market at 67.5% implied probability because recent national and provincial polling averages place the party first with roughly 31–39% support, ahead of PSOE and Vox. Projections for the province’s three congressional seats consistently allocate one to PP under D’Hondt rules, supported by strong local organization in Castilla-La Mancha and the recent selection of Raquel Oliver to head the ticket. A late-October PP-Vox agreement to field a single Senate candidate in Cuenca further consolidates the right-of-center vote. PSOE sits at 30% amid narrower national gaps, while Vox and smaller parties remain well behind on current estimates. The November 29 election date leaves limited time for major shifts before voting.