Recent Spanish election polling aggregates place the PP near 31% and Vox near 19%, keeping their combined vote share hovering around or just below 50% in the run-up to the 29 November contest. Daily tracking surveys show the PSOE narrowing the gap with the PP to roughly 1-3 points while the right-wing bloc’s total has edged down slightly in the most recent readings. Fragmentation among left-leaning parties continues to limit PSOE gains in seat projections, yet the narrow margin on the popular vote leaves the 50% threshold sensitive to late shifts in turnout or preference movement. The final campaign phase and the impending blackout on published polls after 24 November add uncertainty to whether PP and Vox will clear the mark.