Recent forecasts for Spain’s November 29 snap election place turnout near 74 percent, above the 70.4 percent recorded in 2023 and the post-1977 average, driven by an expanded electorate of roughly 38.7 million voters that includes 1.6 million first-time participants and heightened polarization over housing, migration, and governance. The early call by Prime Minister Sánchez following parliamentary defeats on housing measures and regional tensions has compressed the campaign timeline, with official activities beginning November 13, potentially sustaining mobilization while also risking voter fatigue. Trader probabilities clustered around 66–70 percent reflect uncertainty over whether these factors will fully offset typical abstention patterns in a contest where right-leaning blocs currently lead polling.