Recent trailer releases have sharpened focus on *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*’s July 31 domestic bow, with early tracking and industry estimates clustering near $195–220 million amid a post-pandemic economy and a fresh narrative reset rather than multiverse nostalgia. Traders assign the highest implied probability (46.5%) to sub-$200 million because comparable solo Spider-Man launches and current presale momentum point to tempered rather than blockbuster debuts, while the tight cluster around $200–260 million brackets reflects uncertainty over how strongly marketing and word-of-mouth will convert amid competition from other summer tentpoles. Presales opening in the coming weeks and any late shifts in critical or audience sentiment remain the key swing factors.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено«Человек-паук: Совершенно новый день» Открытие бокс-офиса выходного дня
«Человек-паук: Совершенно новый день» Открытие бокс-офиса выходного дня
240–260 млн 23.8%
260-280 млн 20.0%
200–220 млн 16%
220–240 млн 14%
$32,525 Объем
$32,525 Объем
2 авг. 2026 г.
<200 млн
7%
200–220 млн
16%
220–240 млн
14%
240–260 млн
24%
260-280 млн
20%
>280 млн
7%
240–260 млн 23.8%
260-280 млн 20.0%
200–220 млн 16%
220–240 млн 14%
$32,525 Объем
$32,525 Объем
2 авг. 2026 г.
<200 млн
$5,276 Объем
7%
200–220 млн
$6,143 Объем
16%
220–240 млн
$6,080 Объем
14%
240–260 млн
$7,091 Объем
24%
260-280 млн
$4,486 Объем
20%
>280 млн
$3,449 Объем
7%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Recent trailer releases have sharpened focus on *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*’s July 31 domestic bow, with early tracking and industry estimates clustering near $195–220 million amid a post-pandemic economy and a fresh narrative reset rather than multiverse nostalgia. Traders assign the highest implied probability (46.5%) to sub-$200 million because comparable solo Spider-Man launches and current presale momentum point to tempered rather than blockbuster debuts, while the tight cluster around $200–260 million brackets reflects uncertainty over how strongly marketing and word-of-mouth will convert amid competition from other summer tentpoles. Presales opening in the coming weeks and any late shifts in critical or audience sentiment remain the key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Открытие рынка: Jun 18, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
Объем
$32,525Дата окончания
2 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 18, 2026, 11:35 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Recent trailer releases have sharpened focus on *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*’s July 31 domestic bow, with early tracking and industry estimates clustering near $195–220 million amid a post-pandemic economy and a fresh narrative reset rather than multiverse nostalgia. Traders assign the highest implied probability (46.5%) to sub-$200 million because comparable solo Spider-Man launches and current presale momentum point to tempered rather than blockbuster debuts, while the tight cluster around $200–260 million brackets reflects uncertainty over how strongly marketing and word-of-mouth will convert amid competition from other summer tentpoles. Presales opening in the coming weeks and any late shifts in critical or audience sentiment remain the key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Объем
$32,525Дата окончания
2 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 18, 2026, 11:35 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent trailer releases have sharpened focus on *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*’s July 31 domestic bow, with early tracking and industry estimates clustering near $195–220 million amid a post-pandemic economy and a fresh narrative reset rather than multiverse nostalgia. Traders assign the highest implied probability (46.5%) to sub-$200 million because comparable solo Spider-Man launches and current presale momentum point to tempered rather than blockbuster debuts, while the tight cluster around $200–260 million brackets reflects uncertainty over how strongly marketing and word-of-mouth will convert amid competition from other summer tentpoles. Presales opening in the coming weeks and any late shifts in critical or audience sentiment remain the key swing factors.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы