Ongoing military operations between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces have produced no nationwide ceasefire since the conflict began in April 2023, sustaining low implied probabilities for near-term resolution. SAF leadership has conditioned any halt on RSF withdrawal from key sites and expressed skepticism toward external roadmaps, while the RSF has signaled conditional acceptance of Quad-proposed humanitarian truces. Diplomatic efforts, including the Quad’s September 2025 framework, January 2026 Cairo consultations, April Berlin conference calls for an immediate truce followed by political transition, and planned mid-August Swiss talks, have repeatedly stalled without binding commitments. Persistent battlefield gains, sieges, and external arms flows continue to shape trader assessments of timelines for de-escalation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПрекращение огня во время гражданской войны в Судане...?
Прекращение огня во время гражданской войны в Судане...?
$106,300 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
31 декабря 2026 года
15%
$106,300 Объем
31 декабря 2026 года
$1,762 Объем
15%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.Ongoing military operations between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces have produced no nationwide ceasefire since the conflict began in April 2023, sustaining low implied probabilities for near-term resolution. SAF leadership has conditioned any halt on RSF withdrawal from key sites and expressed skepticism toward external roadmaps, while the RSF has signaled conditional acceptance of Quad-proposed humanitarian truces. Diplomatic efforts, including the Quad’s September 2025 framework, January 2026 Cairo consultations, April Berlin conference calls for an immediate truce followed by political transition, and planned mid-August Swiss talks, have repeatedly stalled without binding commitments. Persistent battlefield gains, sieges, and external arms flows continue to shape trader assessments of timelines for de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
Открытие рынка: Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ET
Объем
$106,300Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.Ongoing military operations between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces have produced no nationwide ceasefire since the conflict began in April 2023, sustaining low implied probabilities for near-term resolution. SAF leadership has conditioned any halt on RSF withdrawal from key sites and expressed skepticism toward external roadmaps, while the RSF has signaled conditional acceptance of Quad-proposed humanitarian truces. Diplomatic efforts, including the Quad’s September 2025 framework, January 2026 Cairo consultations, April Berlin conference calls for an immediate truce followed by political transition, and planned mid-August Swiss talks, have repeatedly stalled without binding commitments. Persistent battlefield gains, sieges, and external arms flows continue to shape trader assessments of timelines for de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
Объем
$106,300Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military operations between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces have produced no nationwide ceasefire since the conflict began in April 2023, sustaining low implied probabilities for near-term resolution. SAF leadership has conditioned any halt on RSF withdrawal from key sites and expressed skepticism toward external roadmaps, while the RSF has signaled conditional acceptance of Quad-proposed humanitarian truces. Diplomatic efforts, including the Quad’s September 2025 framework, January 2026 Cairo consultations, April Berlin conference calls for an immediate truce followed by political transition, and planned mid-August Swiss talks, have repeatedly stalled without binding commitments. Persistent battlefield gains, sieges, and external arms flows continue to shape trader assessments of timelines for de-escalation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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