Trader consensus assigning roughly two-thirds probability against a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 rests on mid-April reports that Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito—the court's oldest members at 77 and 76—have no plans to retire this year, with Alito already hiring clerks for the 2027 term. The remaining seven justices range from 54 to 71, none of whom have signaled any departure. No official retirement announcements or health-related developments have emerged in recent months to alter that baseline. While strategic timing discussions continue ahead of the 2026 midterms, the absence of concrete indications from the justices themselves continues to anchor the current implied probabilities.