Harj Dhaliwal of the Conservative Party of British Columbia holds an 80.5% implied probability in trader consensus for the Surrey-Newton riding ahead of the October 24 snap provincial election, well ahead of incumbent Jessie Sunner of the BC NDP at 18.5%. The riding, which the NDP held in 2024 by an 8-point margin, features a three-candidate contest that also includes Harman Preet Singh of CentreBC. A late-September snap election call by NDP leader David Eby, combined with advance voting turnout and provincial polling trends showing Conservative gains, has shaped positioning. The market reflects trader assessments of local momentum and broader BC political shifts, with resolution tied to official vote certification following election night.