Tennessee’s structural Republican advantages in statewide contests, where no Democrat has won since 2006, underpin trader consensus around a Blackburn victory, yet recent polling shows the race tighter than historical patterns. A Democratic-funded survey from mid-September placed Marsha Blackburn at 45 percent and Jerri Green at 36 percent among likely voters, with independent David Hatley drawing 10 percent and potentially splitting conservative support. Earlier surveys had shown wider gaps, and Blackburn’s primary win over John Rose and Monty Fritts left her with strong name recognition and fundraising. Multiple independents on the November 3 ballot and the absence of major late-cycle catalysts keep expected margins distributed across the 5–25 percent range rather than consolidating at higher levels.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПредел победы на выборах губернатора Теннесси
Предел победы на выборах губернатора Теннесси
Республиканец 10-15% 19%
Республиканец 20-25% 18%
Республиканец 15-20% 13%
Республиканцы 25-30% 13%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканец 40%+
3%
Республиканец 35-40%
5%
Республиканец 30-35%
8%
Республиканцы 25-30%
13%
Республиканец 20-25%
18%
Республиканец 15-20%
13%
Республиканец 10-15%
19%
Республиканец 5-10%
40%
Республиканец 0-5%
5%
Победа демократа
3%
Республиканец 10-15% 19%
Республиканец 20-25% 18%
Республиканец 15-20% 13%
Республиканцы 25-30% 13%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканец 40%+
$328 Объем
3%
Республиканец 35-40%
$241 Объем
5%
Республиканец 30-35%
$204 Объем
8%
Республиканцы 25-30%
$872 Объем
13%
Республиканец 20-25%
$1,432 Объем
18%
Республиканец 15-20%
$801 Объем
13%
Республиканец 10-15%
$673 Объем
19%
Республиканец 5-10%
$279 Объем
40%
Республиканец 0-5%
$272 Объем
5%
Победа демократа
$460 Объем
3%
The 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tennessee’s structural Republican advantages in statewide contests, where no Democrat has won since 2006, underpin trader consensus around a Blackburn victory, yet recent polling shows the race tighter than historical patterns. A Democratic-funded survey from mid-September placed Marsha Blackburn at 45 percent and Jerri Green at 36 percent among likely voters, with independent David Hatley drawing 10 percent and potentially splitting conservative support. Earlier surveys had shown wider gaps, and Blackburn’s primary win over John Rose and Monty Fritts left her with strong name recognition and fundraising. Multiple independents on the November 3 ballot and the absence of major late-cycle catalysts keep expected margins distributed across the 5–25 percent range rather than consolidating at higher levels.
The 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 5, 2026, 5:02 PM ET
Объем
$5,562Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 5, 2026, 5:02 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tennessee’s structural Republican advantages in statewide contests, where no Democrat has won since 2006, underpin trader consensus around a Blackburn victory, yet recent polling shows the race tighter than historical patterns. A Democratic-funded survey from mid-September placed Marsha Blackburn at 45 percent and Jerri Green at 36 percent among likely voters, with independent David Hatley drawing 10 percent and potentially splitting conservative support. Earlier surveys had shown wider gaps, and Blackburn’s primary win over John Rose and Monty Fritts left her with strong name recognition and fundraising. Multiple independents on the November 3 ballot and the absence of major late-cycle catalysts keep expected margins distributed across the 5–25 percent range rather than consolidating at higher levels.
The 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$5,562Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 5, 2026, 5:02 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Tennessee’s structural Republican advantages in statewide contests, where no Democrat has won since 2006, underpin trader consensus around a Blackburn victory, yet recent polling shows the race tighter than historical patterns. A Democratic-funded survey from mid-September placed Marsha Blackburn at 45 percent and Jerri Green at 36 percent among likely voters, with independent David Hatley drawing 10 percent and potentially splitting conservative support. Earlier surveys had shown wider gaps, and Blackburn’s primary win over John Rose and Monty Fritts left her with strong name recognition and fundraising. Multiple independents on the November 3 ballot and the absence of major late-cycle catalysts keep expected margins distributed across the 5–25 percent range rather than consolidating at higher levels.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Выиграет ли кандидат от Республиканской партии выборы в Сенат в Теннесси в 2026 году с разницей в 15%-20%?
19%
Да
Выиграет ли кандидат от Республиканской партии выборы в Палату представителей по округу TN-06 в 2026 году с разницей в 15-20%?
30%
Да
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-01 House election by 50%-55%?
32%
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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