Greg Abbott holds a strong position as the Republican incumbent seeking a fourth term in the November 3, 2026, Texas gubernatorial election, with traders assigning his contract an 82.9% implied probability. Texas has not elected a statewide Democrat in over three decades, and Abbott benefits from substantial fundraising edges and established support on issues like border security. Gina Hinojosa, the Democratic nominee, has narrowed the gap in recent September polling averages to low single digits, prompting some forecasters to shift ratings toward toss-up territory amid voter concerns over affordability, public schools, and vouchers. Early voting begins October 19, with both campaigns emphasizing turnout among key demographics such as Latino and independent voters.