Zohran Mamdani holds the lead in trader sentiment for TIME’s 2026 Person of the Year, reflecting his sustained national profile as New York City’s progressive mayor and the first Muslim and Asian American to hold the office. Recent midterm election results have tightened the field, lifting Texas Sen.-elect James Talarico and Michigan Sen.-elect Abdul El-Sayed into strong contention while Mark Carney, Pope Leo XIV, and Donald Trump trail further back. Following 2025’s selection of the Architects of AI, markets show limited appetite for another technology-focused pick. TIME’s editors typically announce the honoree in mid-December based on the year’s most influential figure, with any shortlist release or late-breaking developments likely to shift implied probabilities quickly.