The Tocantins gubernatorial runoff on October 25 pits Professora Dorinha (União Brasil) against Vicentinho Júnior (PSDB) after a first-round finish separated by just 1.58 percentage points, with neither reaching a majority. Mixed second-round polling—one survey showing Vicentinho ahead by seven points and another favoring Dorinha by roughly eight—combined with roughly 10.5% of first-round votes still available from eliminated candidates, sustains uncertainty over the final margin. Both campaigns are focused on consolidating support from those blocs and regional strongholds, while historical patterns in the state show limited second-round reversals. This balance of polling volatility and bloc-mobilization efforts keeps trader assessments split across narrow versus wider victory scenarios.