Turkey's ruling AKP-MHP coalition holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament, well short of the 360-vote threshold needed to call a constitutional referendum or the 400 required for direct parliamentary amendment. Drafting work by the presidential legal commission appointed in May 2025 continues without cross-party consensus or floor votes that would enable an official announcement before year-end. Party leaders have signaled possible action in 2027 or later, while shifting attention toward the 2028 presidential cycle and economic priorities. No parliamentary motion, presidential decree, or public scheduling has advanced the process to referendum stage in 2026, producing the current trader consensus reflected in the 86% implied probability against an announcement.