SpaceX's Version 3 Starships now feature standard androgynous docking ports and propellant transfer systems, validated during the successful July 2026 Flight 13 that demonstrated engine relight and intact reentry. Traders price a low implied probability of ship-to-ship docking by December 31, 2026, because the first orbital-duration mission requires two sequential launches, rendezvous operations, and FAA clearances still pending after recent mishap reviews. Flight 14, now targeting late September 2026 for the initial Earth orbit attempt with Starlink V3 deployment, represents the immediate next step toward longer-duration testing. Subsequent flights in late 2026 or 2027 will be needed to execute the targeted propellant transfer demonstration ahead of NASA HLS timelines, with competitive pressures from reusable launch cadence and regulatory approvals as key swing factors.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоTwo SpaceX Starships dock together by…?
Two SpaceX Starships dock together by…?
$70,613 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
31 декабря 2026 года
3%
31 декабря 2027 года
53%
$70,613 Объем
31 декабря 2026 года
$46,244 Объем
3%
31 декабря 2027 года
$24,369 Объем
53%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX's Version 3 Starships now feature standard androgynous docking ports and propellant transfer systems, validated during the successful July 2026 Flight 13 that demonstrated engine relight and intact reentry. Traders price a low implied probability of ship-to-ship docking by December 31, 2026, because the first orbital-duration mission requires two sequential launches, rendezvous operations, and FAA clearances still pending after recent mishap reviews. Flight 14, now targeting late September 2026 for the initial Earth orbit attempt with Starlink V3 deployment, represents the immediate next step toward longer-duration testing. Subsequent flights in late 2026 or 2027 will be needed to execute the targeted propellant transfer demonstration ahead of NASA HLS timelines, with competitive pressures from reusable launch cadence and regulatory approvals as key swing factors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jun 11, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Объем
$70,613Дата окончания
1 янв. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 11, 2026, 1:09 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX's Version 3 Starships now feature standard androgynous docking ports and propellant transfer systems, validated during the successful July 2026 Flight 13 that demonstrated engine relight and intact reentry. Traders price a low implied probability of ship-to-ship docking by December 31, 2026, because the first orbital-duration mission requires two sequential launches, rendezvous operations, and FAA clearances still pending after recent mishap reviews. Flight 14, now targeting late September 2026 for the initial Earth orbit attempt with Starlink V3 deployment, represents the immediate next step toward longer-duration testing. Subsequent flights in late 2026 or 2027 will be needed to execute the targeted propellant transfer demonstration ahead of NASA HLS timelines, with competitive pressures from reusable launch cadence and regulatory approvals as key swing factors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$70,613Дата окончания
1 янв. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 11, 2026, 1:09 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...SpaceX's Version 3 Starships now feature standard androgynous docking ports and propellant transfer systems, validated during the successful July 2026 Flight 13 that demonstrated engine relight and intact reentry. Traders price a low implied probability of ship-to-ship docking by December 31, 2026, because the first orbital-duration mission requires two sequential launches, rendezvous operations, and FAA clearances still pending after recent mishap reviews. Flight 14, now targeting late September 2026 for the initial Earth orbit attempt with Starlink V3 deployment, represents the immediate next step toward longer-duration testing. Subsequent flights in late 2026 or 2027 will be needed to execute the targeted propellant transfer demonstration ahead of NASA HLS timelines, with competitive pressures from reusable launch cadence and regulatory approvals as key swing factors.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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