SpaceX’s Starship program is advancing toward in-orbit refueling demonstrations that require two vehicles to rendezvous and dock, a capability built into the V3 configuration with added docking drogues, probes, and DragonEye sensors. Flight 12 in May 2026 marked the first V3 test and showed reliable propulsion and stage separation, but no docking attempt occurred. Traders are watching the pace of subsequent flights—Flight 13 is imminent—along with the technical hurdles of autonomous proximity operations, propellant transfer hardware validation, and FAA licensing. Recent company updates emphasize ship-to-ship refueling as essential for Artemis lunar missions and Mars ambitions, yet acknowledge the complexity remains undemonstrated. Competitive pressure from NASA timelines and internal iteration speed are the main variables likely to shift market-implied odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$34,030 Объем
31 дек. 2027 г.
December 31, 2026
21%
December 31, 2027
55%
$34,030 Объем
December 31, 2026
$28,900 Объем
21%
December 31, 2027
$5,129 Объем
55%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX’s Starship program is advancing toward in-orbit refueling demonstrations that require two vehicles to rendezvous and dock, a capability built into the V3 configuration with added docking drogues, probes, and DragonEye sensors. Flight 12 in May 2026 marked the first V3 test and showed reliable propulsion and stage separation, but no docking attempt occurred. Traders are watching the pace of subsequent flights—Flight 13 is imminent—along with the technical hurdles of autonomous proximity operations, propellant transfer hardware validation, and FAA licensing. Recent company updates emphasize ship-to-ship refueling as essential for Artemis lunar missions and Mars ambitions, yet acknowledge the complexity remains undemonstrated. Competitive pressure from NASA timelines and internal iteration speed are the main variables likely to shift market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jun 11, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Объем
$34,030Дата окончания
31 дек. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 11, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX’s Starship program is advancing toward in-orbit refueling demonstrations that require two vehicles to rendezvous and dock, a capability built into the V3 configuration with added docking drogues, probes, and DragonEye sensors. Flight 12 in May 2026 marked the first V3 test and showed reliable propulsion and stage separation, but no docking attempt occurred. Traders are watching the pace of subsequent flights—Flight 13 is imminent—along with the technical hurdles of autonomous proximity operations, propellant transfer hardware validation, and FAA licensing. Recent company updates emphasize ship-to-ship refueling as essential for Artemis lunar missions and Mars ambitions, yet acknowledge the complexity remains undemonstrated. Competitive pressure from NASA timelines and internal iteration speed are the main variables likely to shift market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$34,030Дата окончания
31 дек. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 11, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...SpaceX’s Starship program is advancing toward in-orbit refueling demonstrations that require two vehicles to rendezvous and dock, a capability built into the V3 configuration with added docking drogues, probes, and DragonEye sensors. Flight 12 in May 2026 marked the first V3 test and showed reliable propulsion and stage separation, but no docking attempt occurred. Traders are watching the pace of subsequent flights—Flight 13 is imminent—along with the technical hurdles of autonomous proximity operations, propellant transfer hardware validation, and FAA licensing. Recent company updates emphasize ship-to-ship refueling as essential for Artemis lunar missions and Mars ambitions, yet acknowledge the complexity remains undemonstrated. Competitive pressure from NASA timelines and internal iteration speed are the main variables likely to shift market-implied odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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