Recent polling in Texas’s 15th Congressional District shows Democrat Bobby Pulido leading Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz by roughly six points among likely voters, with the gap widening among Latino voters and independents. This momentum stems from voter dissatisfaction with economic conditions and federal immigration policies in the heavily Latino border district, where support for Republican candidates has softened since the 2024 presidential results. Pulido’s high name recognition as a Tejano musician and focus on regional issues such as border security paired with family protections have aided his campaign outreach. De La Cruz has emphasized her legislative record on fentanyl trafficking and agriculture, but the race remains competitive ahead of the November 3 general election, with forecasters rating it a toss-up. Trader consensus on prediction markets reflects these polling trends and localized voter shifts.