Redistricting after 2025 substantially altered Texas’s 15th District, leaving incumbent Republican Monica De La Cruz representing mostly new territory while Democrat Bobby Pulido benefits from strong name recognition as a Tejano music figure in the heavily Latino area. Recent October polling, including a Texas Southern University survey showing Pulido ahead 51-44 percent, has reinforced trader views of Democratic momentum tied to economic dissatisfaction and enthusiasm linked to the broader Texas Senate contest. Forecasters rate the November 3 race a toss-up, yet prediction markets price Pulido as the clear favorite based on these polling trends, boundary shifts, and voter sentiment in the Rio Grande Valley.