Joaquin Castro's incumbency and the district's entrenched Democratic lean anchor trader consensus around a strong Democratic hold in Texas's 20th congressional district. San Antonio's urban core and consistent partisan voting patterns have produced double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, reinforced by Castro's easy primary victory in March 2026 and limited Republican opposition from nominee Edgardo Baez. Fundraising advantages, stable polling averages, and nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as safe or solid Democratic further support current implied probabilities. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unusually intense national partisan swing could narrow the gap, though structural factors make such shifts improbable before the November 2026 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоTX-20 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
TX-20 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$24,590 Объем
$24,590 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
94%
Республиканская партия
6%
$24,590 Объем
$24,590 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$12,059 Объем
94%
Республиканская партия
$12,531 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Joaquin Castro's incumbency and the district's entrenched Democratic lean anchor trader consensus around a strong Democratic hold in Texas's 20th congressional district. San Antonio's urban core and consistent partisan voting patterns have produced double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, reinforced by Castro's easy primary victory in March 2026 and limited Republican opposition from nominee Edgardo Baez. Fundraising advantages, stable polling averages, and nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as safe or solid Democratic further support current implied probabilities. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unusually intense national partisan swing could narrow the gap, though structural factors make such shifts improbable before the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Объем
$24,590Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Joaquin Castro's incumbency and the district's entrenched Democratic lean anchor trader consensus around a strong Democratic hold in Texas's 20th congressional district. San Antonio's urban core and consistent partisan voting patterns have produced double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, reinforced by Castro's easy primary victory in March 2026 and limited Republican opposition from nominee Edgardo Baez. Fundraising advantages, stable polling averages, and nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as safe or solid Democratic further support current implied probabilities. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unusually intense national partisan swing could narrow the gap, though structural factors make such shifts improbable before the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$24,590Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Joaquin Castro's incumbency and the district's entrenched Democratic lean anchor trader consensus around a strong Democratic hold in Texas's 20th congressional district. San Antonio's urban core and consistent partisan voting patterns have produced double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, reinforced by Castro's easy primary victory in March 2026 and limited Republican opposition from nominee Edgardo Baez. Fundraising advantages, stable polling averages, and nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as safe or solid Democratic further support current implied probabilities. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unusually intense national partisan swing could narrow the gap, though structural factors make such shifts improbable before the November 2026 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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